November likely to see above normal rains in South India, says IMD

India’s north-eastern monsoon, which is mainly concentrated in the southern states, is expected to be heavy in November at 23 per cent more than normal. 

This is due to the prevailing La Nina conditions coupled with a weakened Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday. The long-period average (LPA) or normal for November in South India is 118.7 mm.

The good rains in the south alongside its fairly good performance in other parts should push up rainfall across the country to almost 23 per cent above its monthly average in November, which is 29.7 mm.

The rains should aid planting of the rabi crop and also its early growth, mainly in crops such as wheat, mustard and chana. The soil moisture levels are already good due to almost 47 per cent more than normal rains in October.

“The maximum temperatures in north-west and Central India will remain normal-to-above-normal, which may prevent the emergence of big cold wave conditions,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general, IMD, told reporters.

He said normal-to-above-normal rain is likely over most parts of the country except some areas of south Peninsular India, north-west India and north-east India. Here, below normal rainfall is likely, the Met department said.

When it comes to temperature, the department said below normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except parts of north-west, north-east and some parts of East India.

Meanwhile, on the sowing front, the latest data from the agriculture ministry showed that wheat sowing for the current rabi season has started on a very healthy note. This should augur well for a government struggling to replenish its inventories.

Though the new crop will start arriving in the markets only from the first week of April, a strong start to the sowing season is a positive signal.

According to initial data from the department of agriculture, wheat has been sown in around 54,000 hectares till October 28. This is 54 per cent more than the same period of last year.

In total, wheat was sown in around 30.5 million hectares during the full season and the area covered so far is a negligible part of the total acreage.

Among other crops, mustard acreage till October 28 has been almost 34 per cent more than the same period last year. The area under chana is around 68 per cent more than last year.