Monsoon to be delayed by six days, says Met department

There will be no impact on overall performance

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday that the onset of southwest monsoon over the Kerala coast this year could be delayed by six days and that the rains would arrive around June 7. The forecast is with a model error of plus-minus four days. The normal onset date of the south-west monsoon is June 1, which marks the start of its four-month journey over the Indian sub-continent.

Although the onset of monsoon is forecast to be delayed, its overall impact on the progress and performance is difficult to predict as of now. IMD is sticking to its forecast of “above normal” rains in 2016.

IMD’s forecast of monsoon onset issued from 2005 to 2015 has proved to be correct in all years (with the error margin of plus or minus four days), except in 2015.  Delay in monsoon onset is not an unusual phenomenon, said IMD Director General Laxman Singh Rathore. He, however, added there would be some relief to south Indian states from the intense heat as there could be some rainfall in the coming days.

“Currently, there is a low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal which will become a depression and hit Tamil Nadu coast by tonight. This will bring a good amount of rainfall to the state, parts of south interior Karnataka and parts of Kerala.”

Earlier this week, private weather forecasting agency Skymet had predicted the southwest monsoon would hit the Kerala coast before time between May 28 and 30.

The rains in 2014 and 2015 were below normal, which marked the back-to-back droughts for the fourth time in around 100 years.

The drought has gripped about 10 states and impacted 330 million people.

The monsoon rains irrigate about half the nation’s crop land, where 800 million people live in villages and depend on farming. Agriculture accounts for 18 per cent of the nation’s $2-trillion gross domestic product.

The Reserve Bank of India lowered its key interest rate for the first time in six months on April 5 and Governor Raghuram Rajan said he would watch the performance of the monsoon before deciding on interest rate. Food prices are a key factor that could decide whether Rajan will achieve his goal of keeping inflation within five per cent by March 2017.