So, will Nitish Kumar bite the bullet

Why the Bihar CM has much to lose on his own turf by breaking away from the BJP over the Modi issue

 

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar probably has the potential to attract ‘secular’ allies to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi could probably scare them away. Will the clamour for Modi as the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) prime ministerial candidate derail the 17-year-old NDA in Bihar? The feeling of uncertainty has even gripped the Janata Dal (United) leaders. Political pundits are of the view that snapping of the alliance will throw open the possibility of formation of an uncertain “new social combination”.

 

It seems that the saffron party is ready to take a calculated risk to test if the Bihar ally can afford to walk out of the NDA. "Sometimes, some things become inevitable, after which we don't assess losses or gains…," said a senior leader, hinting a split is imminent.

 

It is the BJP’s compulsion to assign a larger role to Modi and his pro-progress agenda; and it is the JD(U)’s necessity to keep him out. The BJP could go it alone, gambling on a possible Modi wave.  In 2012, a column written by Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh  (RSS) veteran and former spokesperson MG Vaidya, titled Who is secular? And what is secularism? ,questioned Nitish’s “haste” in forcing the prime ministerial issue on the BJP and said: “If he wants to sever his party’s ties with the NDA, he can do it, any time.”

The shadow-boxing between two partners is not a new phenomenon – both BJP and JD (U) have a distinct electoral constituency to address.  It is in Bihar that Nitish’s bargains will be ultimately tested. Unless he can hold on to his home turf, he may not have much of a say either in the NDA or in national politics.  A break with the BJP is thus not an easy option for him, but then, priorities and compulsions keep changing in coalition politics. On Mrach 21, speaking in the Bihar assembly, Nitish said: "Nobody knows what can happen in future-neither you nor I." Nitish's statement set off speculation again over his perceived closeness to the Congress and his growing differences with old ally BJP.

Minority report

Political observers said that Nitish’s calculation was Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad would bounce back in Bihar if the JD (U) remained a BJP ally after Modi’s direct or indirect projection as prime ministerial candidate. The Nitish-led government had won the faith of the state’s 16% Muslim population through continued efforts and he didn’t want to throw it all away with one wrong political move.  If Nitish breaks away from the NDA on the Modi issue, he might emerge as a hero of the Muslims for opposing their ‘enemy number-1’, the way Lalu had emerged after arresting L.K. Advani in early 1990s. Arguably, partnering with Congress could have other drawbacks. He won't be willing to share UPA's tainted reputation in the Lok Sabha polls.

Numbers game 

There is a complete unanimity between his admirers and his bête noirs that Nitish is an astute and seasoned politician. If we  look at 2010 assembly polls picture in terms of vote share, the JD(U)-BJP alliance is a strong winner. The combined vote share of almost 40% that the alliance received is enough to win at least 80% of the seats on offer in Bihar. If he breaks away from BJP, Nitish will lose a potential 16-17% that BJP polled in the 2010 elections.

Significantly, he may lose the votes of the upper castes, too -- a sizeable minority, who tend to vote for BJP and have in recent times grown disillusioned with Nitish's government. That is one reason why Nitish would be hesitant to leave BJP out. The Congress brings much less to the table for Nitish in terms of votes. In the last Assembly polls, Congress managed to win only 8%. 

 

There is the second school of thought that argues the primary  reason may be for Nitish tying up with Congress would be to prevent a consolidation of opposition forces-an RJD- Lok Janshakti Party(LJP)-Congress combine could defeat JD(U) if it were to fight alone.

 

Consider this: in March 2013, the JD(U) candidate, Manju Devi, won the Kalyanpur Assembly seat by-poll but the ruling party’s vote share slipped a bit. Manju Devi defeated her nearest LJP rival, Rekha Paswan, by 16,432 votes. A close scrutiny of the result of 2013 and 2010 reveals a sharp rise in the vote share of the RJD-supported LJP candidate. The BJP-supported JD(U) nominee’s votes, on the other hand, declined marginally. Manju polled 59,325 votes against 42,893 polled by her LJP rival. The LJP’s Bishwanath Paswan had bagged 31,927 votes against 62,124 polled by the JD (U)’s Ramseveak Hajari in 2010.

Support is for sale
The Bihar leader has placed all his cards on the table:  the JD (U) would support any government at the Centre that conceded his six-year-old demand for special category status to Bihar. Of late, Nitish has become the most wooed politician in India. Nitish's decision will be guided by a single consideration: how best to consolidate his hold over Bihar. An engineer by training, the Chief Minister is known to be highly systematic and organised in his thinking. His primary demand of special status for Bihar is more than a political gimmick. He needs extra financial funds to sustain Bihar's double-digit growth. Although Nitish’s political and ideological bias has consistently been anti-Congress, he is on record as having said he would go with anyone who grants special category status.

Arguably, he succeeded in making his demand for the special category status a big political issue in the run-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
 

Modi vs Nitish 
In 2009, Nitish was persuaded to join an NDA rally in Ludhiana. As he climbed on stage, he saw Modi coming purposefully towards him from the other end. Before he could grasp what was up, Modi had taken his hand and raised it aloft for the bay of photographers. The picture became a campaign poster that Nitish thinks an embarrassment. During the Patna national executive session of the BJP in 2010, Modi had the same photograph published as a full-page backdrop to an advertisement in local dailies hailing flood-relief aid Gujarat had sent to Bihar.

Nitish returned Rs 5 crore given by the Gujarat government for Kosi flood relief and cancelled the dinner supposed to be hosted for the BJP leaders at the chief minister’s residence.

Bumpy road? 
Nitish task ahead is more serious. With his party's coalition partner, the BJP, he must now turn the state's economic boom into something more long-lasting. Bihar is desperately short of power, which delays productivity and in turn deters private investors. Official statistics show remarkable levels of economic growth (around 11% a year) though it is unclear whether these can be trusted. Voters need to see jobs created, which means attracting more private investment.