What the MTCR membership actually means for India

India is expected to become a full member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) on Monday.

The development comes days after India's bid to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group was blocked by China. 

“We applied for the membership of MTCR last year and all the procedural formalities have been completed. [On Monday] Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar will sign the document of accession into MTCR in the presence of ambassadors of France, Netherlands and Luxembourg,” External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Vikas Swarup said.

MTCR explained

The regime, which is an informal, voluntary association of nations, aims to check the proliferation of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) capable of carrying weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).

In particular, the group keeps a check on transfer of missiles and UAVs capable of carrying a payload of at least 500 kg to a range of at least 300 km. The group also focuses on any equipment, software or technology that can enable a nation to produce such systems.

Its ability to do so hinges on coordinating national export licensing efforts towards a common export policy that regulates the sale of any such systems or sub-systems. The MTCR maintains a common list of items, including dual-use technology and components, which can be used to deliver WMDs or enable the building of systems which can do the same. 

However, the MTCR is not a treaty and does not impose any legally binding obligations on its adherents and members.

  

What does India gain?

The regime's guidelines do not distinguish between exports to member countries and those to MTCR non-partners. Additionally, membership does not provide any specific or special entitlement to obtain technology from member nations — who have no obligation to supply such items to another member of the regime.

In fact, under the guidelines, member nations are supposed to exercise accountability and restraint in trade of such items among themselves, just as they would in trade between MTCR members and non-members.

In practice, India will not automatically gain access to missile or UAV technology by dint of its membership in the regime itself. 

Furthermore, it does not make it any easier for another nation, member or non-member, to export such items to India. 

At the moment, only the United States of America maintains any legal distinction based on MTCR membership. Under American laws, any foreigner deemed to have sold items which aid a non-MTCR country in acquiring delivery systems such as missiles would be subject to certain sanctions.

However, once India puts in place an appropriate export policy for items covered by the MTCR annex, an argument can be made that the sale of any such systems to India will not lead to any further proliferation.   

Exporting the BrahMos

Various media reports have said that gaining MTCR membership will allow India to sell the BrahMos missiles, which it manufactures jointly with Russia, to countries like Vietnam.

In practice, India's export policies regarding such items are likely to only become stricter following formal membership of the regime.

Furthermore, most countries which have expressed an interest in the supersonic cruise missile are not MTCR-members themselves. 

The operational range of the missile has often been stated to be just a shade below the 300 km threshold that the regime primarily concerns itself with. As such, the cruise missile would not have come under the MTCR's annex of items to begin with.

It is unlikely that India's membership to the MTCR will provide a direct or significant boost to the missile's export prospects.