After a good spell, monsoon likely to weaken from July 9

After remaining vigorous for most of June, the intensity of the southwest monsoon is expected to weaken from July 9, in line with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast of below-normal rain this month across most parts.

However, June rains were 11 per cent more than normal across the country. In the grain producing regions of northwest India — Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh — it was 72 per cent above normal in June.

“Rains over Punjab have been 135 per cent above normal in June. During the same period last year, rains were 15 per cent below normal,” said the IMD. Agriculture ministry officials said the good rain in June should assist in kharif sowing and even if the intensity of the rains go down from mid-July, the sowing should not suffer much.

The big drawback in the June rains were the western regions of Gujarat, Marathwada and Telangana. The monsoon over this oilseed and cotton growing belt was 87 per cent, 50 per cent and 39 per cent below normal, respectively, in June.

Overall, of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions in the country, 17 received excess rainfall in June. The monsoon was normal in nine, deficient in eight and scanty in two sub-divisions.

“The June rains have been fairly good and even across the country, which should eliminate some concern over kharif harvest,” said Ramesh Chand, director, National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research.

“We are hopeful that there won’t be a repeat of 2009 this year in the country and one big factor for this has been the good rains in June,” IMD’s Director General, Ajit Tyagi, told Business Standard in a recent interview.

The four-month southwest monsoon season is crucial for the country, as almost 80 per cent of the total annual rainfall the country gets in the whole year is during June to September. It is vital for agricultural production, as almost 60 per cent of agri land does not have proper irrigation. Enthused by the June rain, the sowing of paddy, the largest foodgrain grown during the kharif season, has started on a brisk note. Agricultural ministry data says paddy had been sown in 4.13 million hectares till yesterday. A higher area than last year was covered in Haryana, Orissa and Uttar Pradesh. Oilseeds were sown in 3.14 mha till date, up by 236,000 ha from last year. Sugarcane has been planted in 5.13 mha, up 238,000 ha from last year.