Agri output almost stagnant in 2014-15

Poor monsoon, unseasonal rain hit earlier hopes, with year's second half a negative; similar worry for coming season

A bad monsoon during the kharif season and unseasonal rain during the rabi harvest took a heavy toll on India’s agricultural growth for 2014-15, dragging down overall economic growth, too.

The Central Statistics Office said on Friday that agriculture grew a mere 0.2 per cent in 2014-15 as against 1.1 per cent in the advance estimate. In 2013-14, agriculture and allied sectors grew by almost 3.7 per cent.

The 2014-15 growth was the lowest since the new GDP series was introduced in 2012-13. Farm growth in 2012-13 was 1.2 per cent.

A change in methodology of GDP calculation and positive growth of 2.1 per cent in horticultural crops, fruit and vegetables saved the day or else the numbers would have been worse.

Quarter on quarter, growth in agriculture and allied  activities in the third and fourth quarter of 2014-15 (October-December and January-March) was a negative. Output fell 1.1 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively, as compared to growth of 3.8 per cent and 4.4 per cent in 2013-14 for the same periods.

In the third advance estimate issued by the department of agriculture in March, foodgrain production in 2014-15 was estimated at 251.12 million tonnes, almost six mt less than the previous estimate in February and 5.25 per cent less than the production in 2013-14.

“Given rabi and kharif production, farm figures (on growth) should be negative. However, due to the changed methodology of value addition, these showed  growth in 2014-15,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings.

D K Joshi, chief economist at CRISIL Ratings, told Business Standard a bad monsoon in the kharif season would have had a limited impact if the rabi harvest was good but the untimely rains killed that hope.

He said the fate of farm growth in 2015-16 would depend on the monsoon in 2015. Initial signals from both the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Australian Weather Bureau are not very encouraging.

“We should keep a close watch on the second forecast of IMD, expected in June, as that would show which regions could get low rains,” Joshi said.

India’s southwest monsoon in 2014 was almost 12 per cent less than normal, putting almost 30 per cent of the country’s landmass under the spectre of below normal rain. Then, a burst of unseasonal rain from late February in most parts washed away the rabi harvest and damaged standing crops in almost 18 million hectares.