Better chance of a normal monsoon in 2015 looking likely

Indications point to a neutral El Niño effect for India this year; however, much can still change and other factors play a role, too, caution Met officials

Though it is early days, initial indications are that the worrisome El Niño weather phenomenon could remain ‘neutral’ during India’s next southwest monsoon. This means a better chance of a normal monsoon in 2015.  

The Australian Weather Bureau's latest forecast is that international models surveyed by it indicate tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (a critical indicator of El Niño) are likely to be within the neutral range for at least the next three months.  This is a big positive for India, as data for 1880 to 2005,  compiled by private weather forecaster Skymet, show 90 per cent of all evolving El Niño years have led to below-normal rainfall, with 65 per cent of these resulting in drought. In the past decade, 2002, 2004 and 2009 were drought years due to El Niño emergence.

“All global weather models as of now are showing that El Niño might remain neutral during the Indian monsoon,” confirmed D S Pai, director of India Meteorological Department’s long-range forecast division, told Business Standard.

He cautioned it was too early for a firm prediction, as the monsoon is affected by other weather phenomena, too. IMD usually issues its first official forecast for the southwest monsoon in April, revising this in June.

The four-month southwest monsoon season begins from June and provides almost 70 per cent of the country's total annual rain. They are crucial for growth of the kharif crops, planted during the season, and for the moisture to the soil for the following rabi season.

The monsoon has a cascading impact on the rural economy as almost 60 per cent of the population lives in villages.

In 2014, the department had first forecast the southwest monsoon would be below normal at 95 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The actual rain was only around 88 per cent. IMD classifies monsoon rain between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA as normal. That between 105 and 110 per cent is ‘aboe normal’ and more than 110 per cent is excess.

Also, rain between 90 and 94 per cent of the LPA are considered below normal. Below 90 per cent, it is drought. LPA is the average rainfall in the past 50 years.

Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at Skymet, said there was a 50-55 per cent chance of El Niño being ‘neutral’ this year. “A few months back, this probability was 37-38 per cent and it has gradually increased. Moreover, maximum global monsoon models are now showing a neutral El Niño this year, which looks positive for the Indian monsoon,” he said.