Cheery news on kharif sowing

Rainfall was almost 15 per cent less than normal in July, supposedly the most important in the four-month season. Yet, the area covered under kharif crops was almost 8.6 per cent more than the same period last year and only marginally less than the average of the past five years.

Usually, when rainfall is deficit, sowing takes a backseat and farmers tend to wait to plant their crops. However, there was more than normal rain in June and farmers tend to sow on the first sight of rain. Also, distribution and timeliness seems to have been a big factor in pushing acreage.

Data from India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that among the big areas, barring Marathwada, Vidharbha, north interior Karnataka and to some extent Madhya Maharashtra, no sub-division has been dry for more than three weeks at a stretch since June 1.

In sum, in all the 36 meteorological subdivisions, whenever there has been a dry spell for more than 15 days, this was broken by a burst of rain. It might not be strong showers but it did rain. This, it is said, has been critical in raising the area under almost all kharif crops.

From June 1, the first dry spell was broken around June 10 and the above-normal monsoon rain continued for three to four days. Then, from June 21 to 26, the cumulative monsoon was more than normal. July started with a big concern as showers stopped but the spell was broken around July 11, which saw above normal rain in many parts.

Thereafter, from July 21, another round of rain occurred across most parts. This trend has extended to August and by all counts would last till August 10-15. Thereafter, meteorologists said, the spell would be broken and the rains would resume from August 20.

In other words, most parts would continue to receive showers off and on, though the amount might not be huge in some places. This should augur well for the rest of the sowing season and aid in production of kharif crops.  A problem will arise if rains stop from end-August and temperatures increase abnormally. In such a situation, the final output might get impacted as most kharif crops during that month would be in a flowering stage.  IMD's latest forecast said August and September rains were expected to be below normal at 84 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), as adverse weather conditions had strengthened in recent months. The forecast is with an error range of eight per cent either way.  

For August, the met department said rainfall was expected to be 90 per cent of the LPA, with an error range of nine per cent, as in June. This could mean  September rains could be weaker than expected.