Citi pegs FY12 GDP growth at 8.1%, optimistic about H2

Citigroup today said it expects India's economic growth to pick up in the second half of FY12 on increased investments and was maintaining its overall GDP growth projections for the economy at 8.1% for the current fiscal.

"We expect FY12 to be a year of two halves. In the first half, between April and September, we expect growth to come in the 7.5-7.8% range. We are hoping for recovery in the second half," Citi Investment Research's Managing Director and Economic and Market Analyst Rohini Malkani told reporters here.

One of the "main assumptions" for maintaining the 8.1% GDP growth target, Malkani said, is an upswing in investments during the second half of the current fiscal.

It being the last year of the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-12), investments would go up while corporates, a majority of whom have not shelved their investment plans, will also invest, she said.

The comments come within ten days of data for January-March 2011 quarter showing GDP growth slowing down to 7.8%, which in turn, led to scepticism over the growth outlook for FY12 and whether the government will be able to achieve its budgetary target of a GDP growth of 9%.

A deceleration in investment, as observed in the January-March quarter, will bring the GDP growth down to 7.2% for FY12, she said.

On the fiscal deficit front, Malkani said, there will be a "slippage" and it could go up to the 5.1% to 5.50% level from the budget target of 4.6%.