Covid-19 crisis: Global tenders for vax a long shot, says SBI report

With 62 per cent of the global production capacity of 22.2-billion Covid vaccines already tied up in agreements for sale, state governments that have floated global tenders to procure vaccines could face challenges in the next two months.

A State Bank of India (SBI) report on Friday says “Indian states are in a fix as they are currently facing inelastic supply curve, at least for the next two months”.

They point out that this is reflected in the fact that Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), which floated a tender, has had to extend its deadline from May 18 to May 25. It has, however, got some interest for Sputnik V. According to SBI Ecowrap, for as much as 13.74 billion doses, agreements have been formalised. Of these, 9.3 billion doses are already secured. India has secured 280 million out of these.

SBI says there are 15 vaccines approved for emergency use and a similar number in Phase 2 or 3 stage of development; another four are in the regulatory review stage.

It is logical that states will look for companies which already have emergency authorisation. However, with four of the vaccine makers being Chinese, it remains to be seen whether states will allow them to participate in a global tender, given the fractious geopolitical relations.

According to the United Nations Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) data, all vaccines with ribonucleic acid technology (3.9 billion) have been secured by other nations (2.69 billion).

However, these vaccine companies are also increasing their capacity and should have some doses to spare, beginning third quarter of 2021.

Johnson & Johnson vaccines have faced bans in the US and there are possible concerns about their safety.

The report says the issue of storage and urgent supply requirements in the tender will act as a deterrent to vaccine makers. 

Therefore, states and the Centre need to come up with a cold-chain infrastructure plan if they are targeting international vaccine makers.

Also, all of them are looking at a storage temperature for the vaccine of 2-8 degrees Celsius. This again limits the number of suitors. The report warns that inelastic supply and high demand could lead to higher prices.

Vaccines prices, according to UNICEF, could range between $2 and $40.