England World Cup triumph would be worst outcome for bookmakers

Paddy Power Plc has a worst-case scenario for what may be the biggest sports-betting event of all time: England beats Spain in next month’s World Cup soccer final.

If Fabio Capello’s team wins, “We’re all basically stuffed,” said Paddy Power, a spokesman for Ireland’s biggest bookmaker and son of a co-founder. If Spain, the favourite, loses to England in the final, “We’d have lost money every step of the way.”

Disproportionate betting by patriotic English fans means the World Cup is a risky proposition for UK bookmakers, while a tendency for favourites to win most of the games can lead to slim profit margins. Still, with more than $1.5 billion likely to be wagered on the tournament, according to bookmaker William Hill, odds compilers will be going all out to win new customers they aim to keep after the event.

“It’s not the end of the world if the bookies get caught with their pants down,” said Power, referring to the World Cup as “a showcase for the industry.” Bookmakers need England to stay in the tournament as long as possible - just not to win the trophy. Tied matches would be favourable because most customers bet on a win or loss after regulation time, said UK bookmaker Ladbrokes sports director Richard Andrew.

“England attracts an extremely patriotic bet,” said David Forrest, an economist in gambling analysis at the University of Salford. “Which Englishman’s going to bet against England?” Ladbrokes offers odds of 7-1 on Capello’s team winning the tournament, meaning a 1 pound wager would return 8 pounds. Only Spain and Brazil are priced shorter.