Etah & Mainpuri Turn Against Mulayam

Many houses were occupied and the original occupants thrown out. People point out a house whose tenants were thrown out by a certain Ajay Yadav, the chairman of the Zilla Panchayat of Etah, currently regarded close to Mulayam.

The district is managed by the family of Ramesh Yadav on behalf of Mulayam Singh. The area is haunted by the spectre of the Yadavs' terror. The single greatest worry of the populace is how to keep the Yadavs at bay. This has helped the BJP because all the non-Yadavs have rallied around it to prevent the SP from taking over.

In this election, many Yadavs, too, have gone against the SP since they have started hating Ramesh Yadav and his family.

In Nidhauli, a Yadav dominated constituency, many Yadavs are planning to vote for the BJP. If the BJP candidate gets even 40 per cent of the Lodh votes, although it is going to get far more then this, the BJP will win in a contest where the three Yadavs are in fray. Anil Yadav of the Congress-BSP will most probably be second and Rajendra Yadav of the SP third.

People point out that even Muslims of the area are ditching the party for the BSP. This trend has assumed alarming proportions and the SP is in a fix. At Patiali, the MP from Badayun, Saleem Shetrwani, is desperately trying to stem the Muslims' shift to the BSP. Only Pushpa Upadhyay of the SP is putting up a creditable fight, in Soron. The UF has a good chance in this seat.

The BJP has an advantage since it has the Lodh Rajputs, a backward caste, staunchly supporting it. This, in combination with the upper caste vote, is sufficient to deliver the six out of eight seats to the party.

In Mainpuri, the two murders, in Etawah and Bhogaon, have turned the Thakurs against the SP. The whole Thakur vote would have gone to the BJP since in both incidents, the needle of suspicion points to Mulayam's family. But the situation is that the Thakurs are supporting the BJP in every part of the district except Bhogaon, where they are supporting the BSP's candidate. In Bhogaon, the BSP will win due to sympathy factor. Even BJP workers support him due to many deaths in his family. For the rest there is keen contest for all seats, with no clear winners yet.

In Kannauj, the BJP vote bank has remained intact and the Kurmis are solidly behind it, leaving very few questions about the outcome. The vote division will be to the BJP's advantage.