Exit polls show UPA ahead

Exit and opinion polls gave the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) an edge over the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 15th general elections to the Lok Sabha. But they also predicted that both alliances would need more help from fresh partners to make the halfway mark of 272 in a 545-member Lok Sabha.

In the 2004 general elections, no exit poll managed to predict the result accurately. All polls gave the NDA an edge, whereas it was the UPA that formed the government.

All major television channels commission polls ahead of elections as a matter of course. Over the years, this has raised questions on the fairness of the electoral exercise. As a result, Supreme Court and Election Commission restricted these, to prevent colouring the judgment of voters in a phased election; the clamps ended today. At the close of voting, all major television surveys said both major combinations would have to contend with a hung House.

The number of seats required to make up the 272 shortfall was considerable for both alliances, ranging from 40 to 60 seats, leaving political circles agog with the possibility of political realignments.

On its own, the Congress won 145 seats in the 2004 elections and the BJP 138. The Left parties with 61 seats, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) with 24 seats and the Samajwadi Party with 36 seats were among the allies that helped the UPA form a government in 2004.

In 2009, these major UPA allies have banded into a separate front with other new partners, some from the rival NDA. The Third Front, led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), declared that it will neither support the Congress nor the BJP.

The “Fourth Front”, comprising the Samajwadi Party, the RJD and the Lok Janashakti Party, has given veiled indications that it will help the UPA but is yet to reveal the terms of the compromise.

Internal assessments by the political parties themselves are predictable. On the basis of the seats the present UPA allies bring to the table, the Congress is giving the alliance 205 seats and the NDA 168 seats. In the internal assessment of the BJP, the NDA will get 220 seats and the UPA 170 seats.

A pre-election India Today opinion poll predicted 190 to 199 seats for the UPA, far below the 222 seats it won five years ago. The survey said the BJP-led NDA will get between 172 and 181 seats, short of the 187 seats it won in 2004.
 

INITIAL EXIT POLL NUMBERS 2009
Headlines Today	UPA	191	NDA	180	Left	38	Others	134
India TV	UPA	195-201*	NDA	189-195	3rd Front	113-121	Others	14
NewsX	UPA	199	NDA	191	3rd Front	104	Others	48
	Congress	155	BJP	153
UTVi	UPA	195	NDA	183-195	3rd Front	105-121
News 24	UPA	218	NDA	194	3rd Front	101	4th Front	30
Times Now	UPA	198	NDA	183	3rd Front	112	Others	50
	Congress	154	BJP	142	Left	38
Star News	UPA	199	NDA	196	3rd Front	100	Others	48
	Congress	155	BJP	153
CNN-IBN	UPA	185-205	NDA	165-185	3rd Front	110-130	4th Front	25-35
	Congress	145-160	BJP	135-150	Left	30-40
NDTV**	UPA	77	NDA	72	3rd Front	39	4th Front	6
							Others	2
* (could go up to 227-237 if RJD, LJP and SP join)     ** Projections for 196 seats in six states
AND IN 2004... Congress and allies: 222 seats; BJP and allies: 187 seats
NDTV	NDA	230-250	Congress and allies	190-205	Others	100-120
Aaj Tak	NDA	248#	Congress and allies	190	Others	105
Star TV	NDA	263-275	Congress	ce="Tahoma"