Farm growth could push GDP data

Agriculture is expected to save the day for the economy, clocking a growth rate of 4.6 per cent, the best since 2011-12. The sector's performance will largely be on the back of a good monsoon, which should give a record harvest. Farm growth in FY13 was estimated to be around 1.4 per cent.

"The growth rate has been largely driven by an even distribution of the south-west monsoon in 2013, which has led to a bumper harvest and also some impact from the low base last year," P K Joshi, South Asia director, International Food Policy Research Institute, told Business Standard.

The south-west monsoon, which provides around 70 per cent of India's total precipitation, was around six per cent more than normal in 2013.

Almost all parts of the country, barring the eastern states of Bihar, Assam and West Bengal, received heavy and well-distributed rainfall through the four-month season between June and September. The Met department said the country received 936.7 mm of rainfall during the monsoon season of 2013 against a normal of 886.9 mm.

The rains continued their run during the winter season, boosting prospects of the rabi harvest as well. The data show rabi crops had been planted in 65.41 million hectares till Friday, almost six per cent more than last year.

The government expects production of wheat in 2013-14 crop year to be a record almost 100 million tonnes, against 92.46 million tonnes in 2012-13. Overall, foodgrains production which also includes rice and pulses is projected to be much more than 2011-12 record of 259.29 million tonnes. Output fell to 255.36 million tonnes in 2012-13 due to drought in some parts of the country.

Recently, agriculture minister Sharad Pawar exuded confidence that overall foodgrain production in 2013-14 crop year is likely to break the previous record of 259.29 million tonnes achieved in 2011-12.

"Government programmes like National Food Security Mission use of good quality seeds and the emergence of states like Bihar and Odisha as being one of the premier agriculture states have also contributed in getting this growth rate," said Joshi.