Foodgrain output at 3-year low

A less than normal southwest monsoon in 2014 has affected not only the kharif crop production in India but also the rabi harvest, pulling down the foodgrain production estimate in 2014-15 (July-June) to 257.07 million tonnes, the lowest in the last three years.

Foodgrain production in 2013-14 was estimated to be 265.57 million tonnes.

According to the second advance estimate of production released by the department of agriculture on Wednesday, foodgrain production during the kharif season is expected to be 123.78 million tonnes, down from 128.69 million tonnes in 2013-14. In the rabi season, it is expected to be 133.28 million tonnes, down from 136.88 million tonnes in 2013-14.

The wheat harvest in the current rabi season is expected to be 95.76 million tonnes, marginally less than the record 95.85 million tonnes of 2013-14. Wheat is the main foodgrain grown during the rabi season.

Output of mustard is expected to be 7.36 million tonnes, 6.86 per cent less than last year.

"It must be appreciated that despite an over 10 per cent shortfall in the monsoon in 2014, India's foodgrain production is just around 9 million tonnes less than the previous year," a senior agriculture ministry official said.

The data also showed that pulses production in 2014-15 is expected to be 6.82 per cent less than last year at 18.43 million tonnes. Gram output is expected to be the worst affected, dropping to 8.28 million tonnes in 2014-15 from 9.53 million tonnes in 2013-14.

Oilseed production is expected to be 29.83 million tonnes in 2014-15, down from 32.74 million tonnes in 2013-14.

The southwest monsoon, lifeline for millions of farmers across India, was deficit in around 30 per cent of India in 2014, India Meteorological Department's data showed. Of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions, rainfall was normal in 67 per cent of the total area, deficit in 30 per cent of the area and excess in three per cent.

India recorded monsoon rainfall equivalent to 88 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is below normal. The LPA is the average rainfall India received in the past 50 years.

The government recently estimated that growth in agriculture and allied activities, which includes forestry and fishing, at around 1.1 per cent in 2014-15, 2.6 percentage points lower than in 2013-14.

"Foodgrain production is down due to the poor monsoon in kharif and low rabi acreage. But that did not have any impact on prices, except for pulses and that too specifically gram. Growth is expected to be positive despite a drop in output mainly due to horticulture and poultry," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, CARE Rating.