GDP data with FY12 as base year to be out in January 2015

IIP, WPI numbers on new base year to be announced from March 2016

Data on gross domestic product (GDP), with 2011-12 as the base year instead of the current 2004-05, are slated to be released on January 31, 2015, which will raise India's GDP size  for three years from 2011-12 onwards.  Data on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation, using the new base year, will be announced from March 2016.

“The new series of national accounts is tentatively scheduled for release on January 31, 2015,” said a statement by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

Typically, GDP data of past years are revised on the last working day of January. As such, data for 2012-13 and 2013-14 might be revised on January 31 next year (GDP growth for 2012-13 and 2013-14 stood at 4.5 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively).

However, if past revisions are a yardstick, there isn’t much hope of a revision in GDP growth. However, in absolute  numbers, GDP size of the economy would be increased for  2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14.

On January 29, 2010, the base year was revised from 1999-00 to 2004-05; there was hardly any change in GDP growth for 2005-06 to 2008-09. The only exception was 2007-08, for which GDP growth was scaled down from 9.2 per cent to nine per cent.   However, the size was scaled  up for 2004-05 to 2008-09. The GDP size for 2011-12 stood at over Rs 90 lakh crore, over Rs 101 lakh crore for the next year and over Rs 113 lakh crore for 2013-14. The series with a base year of 2011-12 will be based on a number of recommendations by various sub-committees, including one on unorganised manufacturing and the services sector, one on agriculture and allied activities and one on the private sector.

Based on the recommendations, data on companies from MCA 21 (an initiative of the corporate affairs ministry), instead of central bank data on company finances, will be considered. The population census of 2011, the agriculture census of 2010-11 and the livestock census of 2012 will also be taken into account. The new data will also factor in data on financial corporations provided by the Securities and Exchange Board of India and the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority.

Since compilation of national accounts involves the incorporation of indices such as WPI and IIP, the base year of these indices will also be changed from 2004-05 to 2011-12, albeit from March 2016.

As any change in estimates for 2011-12 to 2013-14 will have to be accompanied by the complete reconstruction of all accounts, the new series of IIP and WPI will be incorporated in the annual estimates of 2011-12 to 2013-14 in the data to be released in January 2017.