Gdp Growth Rate For 2000-01 Revised To 5.2%

The advance estimates (AE) for gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate at constant prices for 2000-01 have been revised downwards to 5.2 per cent, against the earlier estimate of 6.0 per cent. The GDP, as per revised estimates (RE) has been pegged at Rs 12,11,747 crore , down from the Rs 12,21,174 crore reported in the AE released in January this year.

This downward revision will push up the fiscal deficit figure for 2000-01 to almost 5.7 per cent of the GDP as against the budgetary target of 5.1 per cent. It will also bring down the average GDP growth rate in the first four years of the Ninth Five-Year Plan period (1997-98 to 2001-02) to 5.75 per cent as compared to the target of 6.5 per cent. The average GDP growth rate during the Eighth Plan was 6.8 per cent, against the target of 7 per cent.

The revision in the GDP figures has been done taking into account the poor performance in almost all sectors of the economy last year. Community, social and personal services was the only category which reported an increase in the growth rate.

While the AE released earlier had reported a 0.9 per cent growth in the agriculture sector despite the severe drought conditions in several parts of the country, this time around, the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) has reported a more realistic 0.2 per cent agricultural growth for 2000-01.

The impact of the industrial slowdown has led to a revision in the growth rates for manufacturing to 5.6 per cent as against the AE of 6.4 per cent.

Even in the case of construction, expected to do better in the aftermath of the Gujarat earthquake, the CSO reported a drop in growth figures. The growth rate is down from 8.7 per cent (AE) to 5.5 per cent (RE).

The growth estimates for the services sector were also revised downwards with the figure for trade, hotels, transport and communication being revised to 6.9 per cent (RE) as against 8.0 per cent (AE). Financial services growth was also brought down to 9.1 per cent as against 9.6 per cent reported earlier.

All sectors reported a fairly bad performance in the fourth quarter with the GDP at factor prices (1994-94 prices) growing by only 3.8 per cent as against an average growth of 5.8 per cent in the first three quarters.

Agriculture, in fact, reported a negative growth of 1.4 per cent in the fourth quarter while manufacturing grew by only 3.5 per cent. The construction sector reported a 0.7 per cent growth in the same period.

The national income at constant prices for 2000-01 is now estimated at Rs 10,63,479 crore (5.2 per cent growth) as against the AE of Rs 10,72,906 crore (6.6 per cent growth). The per capita income estimate was also revised down to Rs 10,561 as against Rs 10,654 estimated earlier.

The GDP at current prices is estimated at Rs 19,78,042 crore, a 10.7 per cent growth over the quick estimates of GDP for 1999-2000.