Grain production estimate for 2009-10 raised to 218.20 mt

The government today revised upward its estimate for foodgrain production at 218.20 million tonnes (mt) in the 2009-10 crop year. The upward revision came even as the estimates for output of rice, wheat and pulses were revised downward for the year.

Even as the foodgrain production in 2009-10 is expected to surpass its earlier estimate, it continues to be lower than the output of 234.47 mt achieved in 2008-09. The fourth advance estimates has lowered the output forecast for rice, wheat, pulses and oilseeds but had revised upwards the projection for coarse cereals.

Foodgrains are grown in both the rabi (winter) and kharif (summer) seasons.

The rice production is likely to be around 89.13 mt in 2009-10, lower than the earlier projection of 89.31 mt and much lower than the record 99.18 mt achieved in 2008-09.

The sharp fall in rice output was mainly due to the severe drought in 2009 that hit more than half the country. Though the wheat output is seen marginally down from the earlier estimate at 80.71 mt, it is still higher than the record output of 80.68 mt in the previous year.

Production of pulses is also pegged at 14.59 mt, lower than the earlier forecast of 14.77 mt, but higher than the previous year’s output of 14.57 mt.

Similarly, oilseed production for 2009-10 is likely to be 23.94 mt, lower than the earlier projection of 25.41 mt. This is also lower than the previous year’s actual production of 27.72 mt.

In contrast, the output of coarse cereals is likely to have improved to 23.63 mt in 2009-10 from the earlier estimate of 23.2 mt. Nevertheless, the output is still lower than the production of 28.54 mt in 2008-09. Coarse cereals had fared well last year as they are less dependent on monsoon rains.

The sugarcane output is likely to marginally improve to 277.75 mt, much lower than the previous year’s production of 285.03 mt.

Among non-food crops, cotton production is seen to have risen to 24.93 million bales in 2009-10 from 22.28 million bales in 2008-09. One bale of cotton contains 170 kg.

The jute output is likely to have increased to 10.70 million bales (one bale of jute is equal to 180 kg) in 2009-10 from 9.63 million bales in the previous year.