High turnout a surprise element in UP polls

After 65% in first phase, 59% people cast votes in second

How does voter turnout impact elections? In Uttar Pradesh, the results, when they come, may be a surprise for political analysts. But, the turnout has been an even bigger surprise.

In the first phase of elections, 65 per cent people came to vote, compared to the 45 per cent in 2007. This was despite heavy rains in many parts of the 55 constituencies spread over 10 districts that went to polls on February 7. All India Congress Committee General Secretary Rahul Gandhi saw in this people’s craving for change. “Whenever the poll turnout crosses 60 per cent, it indicates a change,” he said in a campaign speech.

The polling in the second phase that ended on Saturday was around 59 per cent, compared to around 50 per cent in the same areas five years ago.

Ramesh Dixit, professor of political science in the Lucknow University is neutral on whom the high turnout may favour. But, he says, it reflects how much more active party organisations have become.

Possibly because of the Election Commission, maybe because of the new brand of young, first-time voters, the way India votes has been surely transformed in these elections.

For the first time, social media is being used with a vengeance in the elections. Akhilesh Yadav, state president of the Samajwadi Party and the son of a father who has no patience with modern gadgetry and given the thumbs down to both computer chips and potato chips, went on Facebook on February 7, getting 53,000 hits in the first hour. In the chat, one Lakshman Gupta told Yadav: “We don’t want a leader who can’t even give us time online….” To this, Yadav replied: “We promise we will do. And. I am always for you.” Another netizen, Renu, asked: “High prices are making it difficult for the poor to make ends meet. What are you going to do about this?” Yadav replied: “We will set a limit on profiteering”.

It is not just Twitter and Facebook, Yadav has set up a call centre that handles all election-related queries, tracks the campaign and, most important, keeps a wary eye on expenses.

In the past, Lucknow used to turn into a mess during elections. Graffiti and posters would make walls their home, every corner would have a couple of cutouts. This time, not a single cutout or poster can be seen anywhere. Billboards extolling the Mayawati government’s achievements were torn down the moment the Model Code of Conduct kicked in.

They were replaced by billboards put up by the Election Commission, exhorting people to vote. Malini Awasthi, a bhojpuri folk singer is the brand ambassador of the Election Comission. She is the one who is giving interviews about why “people feel good when they cast their vote”.

Observers say the first signals that the Election Commission meant business came when the chief secretary of the state, Anoop Mishra, was pulled up for pleading the case against the cover-up of statues of elephants, the election symbol of the Bahujan Samaj Party.

“The letter has given an impression that you have acted like functionary of a party rather than a government officer,” said the letter by Election Commission Principal Secretary R K Srivastava about Mishra’s missive protesting the ‘cover-up’.

Later, when the police cracked down on the transportation of currency and liquour, and this was widely publicised, not a single candidate was ready to take a chance.

This is another reason why people are coming out to vote in such large numbers. There has been virtually no violence in the elections so far. “In the last few elections, every chai wallah would shut shop on the election day, fearing violence. Now, although an election is on, people are going about their business normally,” said Tahir Syed, a gentleman farmer.

It is hard to tell who has contributed the most to the high voter turnout — dedicated cadres (in which case it is the BSP which will benefit); young voters (seen largely as supporters of Rahul Gandhi or Akhilesh Yadav) or voters from minority areas. But, this is certain that the high turnout, if it is consistent, will represent another dimension of the poll results.