ILO forecasts 40 mn job shortage, warns of social unrest

The world economy is likely to create just half of the 80 million jobs needed over the next two years, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) said today, warning that the risk of social unrest was rising amid the morose unemployment situation.

"We estimate that for the next two years, the world economy would need 80 million jobs to bring the unemployment rate down to what it was before the crisis" in 2007, said Raymond Torres, who heads ILO's research institute.

However, going by current trends, the "world economy would create just 40 million jobs", half of what is necessary.

Most of those new jobs would be created in the developing world, while just 2.5 million would be created in advanced economies.

As a result, industrialised states would be short of 24.7 million jobs during 2012 and 2013, said ILO data.

The acute job shortage is expected to translate into greater social tension in the advanced world.

In 45 countries of 118 studied, "the risk of social unrest is rising", warned the ILO.

"This is especially the case in advanced economies, notably the EU, the Arab region and to a lesser extent, Asia," it said.

Demonstrations have been raging across European cities and the United States against the financial system which they accuse of bringing about the economic crisis that left millions unemployed.

World unemployment was already at an all-time high of 200 million at the end of 2010, and the UN labour agency expects the situation to worsen for 2011.