India can outpace China growth in 4-5 yrs: Kaushik Basu

Chief Economic Advisor Kaushik Basu today said the country's growth rate can surpass that of China by as early as 2014, if certain problems in the economy are taken care of.

"For India to cross over China's growth rate within the next four to five years is not an impossibility," Basu said at a seminar organised by industry body Ficci here today.

He is counting on the savings rate of 38 per cent, which he said is likely to cross 40 per cent, poverty alleviation programmes and initiatives like NREGA, debt waiver schemes and the sixth pay commission, which are targeted at the masses.

However, Basu said the government needs to become more efficient, bureaucratic costs must be reduced, leakage and pilferage from poverty alleviation programmes need to be attacked, among other measures if it wants to propel the economy to a higher growth path.

Crediting the measures targeted at the bottom of the society more than the three stimulus packages for the resilience of the economy during the crisis period, Basu said touching double-digit growth is within reach.

"Little bits and pieces of data that have already come in suggest that the third quarter is going to be good," he said adding the fourth quarter should also do well as indicators show turnaround in the economy and also due to the base effect.

"The forecast (for the current fiscal) is that it's going to be around 7.5 per cent. I believe a little bit over that this year when the year closes," Basu said.

He further said the economy should get back to the 9-per cent growth path "by next year certainly, towards the end".

"If it does that and since there are lot of slacks in the economy, if we can pick up on the slacks for us to move into a double digit growth...10 per cent growth rate within a couple of years is certainly within the realm of possibility," the newly appointed chief economic advisor said.