India needs to walk a tightrope to maintain ties with US: Anuradha Chenoy

India has developed strong relations with the US, EU, Japan and others. But there is clarity in India (so far) that each relation should not be at the cost of others, says professor Chenoy

Anuradha Chenoy, retired professor, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, and former director and chairperson, Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, tells Aditi Phadnis how India and Russia can deepen their strategic relationship and not look at it through either the United States or Pakistan lens. Edited excerpts:

Vladimir Putin was the first leader to congratulate Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his re-election. On the same day, the spokesperson of the Russian MFA spoke at length on the recent intensification of Russia’s contacts with Pakistan. What, if anything, should we read into this?

In the current fast track international system with transitional geopolitics where multiple powers exercise leverage, both Russia and India have to craft multiple options in foreign policy. This means that influencer powers like India and especially Russia cannot depend on singular relations. India has developed strong relations with the US, EU, Japan and others. But there is clarity in India (so far) that each relation should not be at the cost of others. Especially Russia.

Russia is in a different position. They have fewer options. The deep state in the US is structurally in opposition to Russia. Even though President Donald Trump tried changing this in a limited way. The US and others have imposed unilateral sanctions on Russia. Further, they also threaten to impose sanctions on third states that trade with Russia through their 2017 law called Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). This has driven Russia strategically and economically closer to China. China is the only power that has expressed outrage against CAATSA and has the capacity to impose counter sanctions, tariffs and withstand trade wars. China has put pressure on Russia to improve its relations with Pakistan. 

Russia also needs Pakistan to fulfil its policy for a stable Afghanistan and Central Asia. So Russia is balancing China-Pakistan without upsetting its relations with India. Similarly, despite the US raising tariffs on Indian exports, India is balancing its relations between the US with Russia, by seeking to accommodate its defence purchases with Russia by seeking special exemptions from the US on CAATSA on the one hand, while offering the US low hanging fruit like new defence deals with the US and Israel and others.

Will this come up on the sidelines of the G20 conference when the two leaders meet? 

India cannot afford to link foreign relations and ties through the Pakistan lens. If she did, how could she develop relations even with the US that has been Pakistan’s major supporter and still treats it as a client state? 

India and Russia have important issues that include: 

Strategic issues: India and Russia share a common understanding of terrorism and their interests in Afghanistan have some convergences. Even though Russia now appears to be ready to have the Taliban on the peace table that India still resists, the end goal of a stable Afghanistan is of common interest to India and Russia. India has to leverage Russia for deepening development partnerships in Central Asia and Afghanistan.

Russia has an interest in the Indian Ocean as a zone of peace. The interests of great powers increased in the Indo Pacific with differences between China and the US. The US wants to engage India in its plans. India has been taking tiny steps like the partnership of the QUAD (USA, Australia, Japan, India) India and Russia need to collaborate in the Asia Pacific and Arabian Sea and the Gulf. They can work with Vietnam and others in the Pacific also.

Transport Corridors: The most critical aspect on which India and Russia have been negotiating is the International North South Corridor. Given the huge plans of the Chinese Belt and Roadway Initiative (BRI), and India staying away from it, India should no longer do a “go slow” on this. President Putin, is likely to talk of this.

Energy: India has major interests and investment in Russian hydro carbons. These interests have been under the radar, but are important to both. The two heads of state need to review if Indian investments in Sakhalin I and II have been beneficial and set rules for Russia as a player in the private energy market in India.

Economic and trade issues: There will be discussion on the hurdles on increasing trade and investment especially in the context of sanctions. In this light, it would be useful for India and Russia to consider a debt swap and trade in national currencies. While it was tried earlier as rupee rouble, the old experience minus the problems is worth looking at more so because Russia and China have worked out a good deal on this. Further countries blocked by the US like Venezuela, Iran and others are engaging with Russia and China in local currencies. Of course, India would not like to anger the US, but it needs to keep an Indian perspective.

Defence platforms in India remain structurally aligned with Russia, despite Indian diversification. It is likely that the Indian side would like not just transfer of technology in defence sectors but also to commercial sectors.

There have been proposals that Russia should accept Indian migrant and skilled labour. This will be a major opening for India with high unemployment levels and Russia with labour shortage. Missing out on this will be a hugely missed opportunity.

The US principal deputy assistant secretary for South and Central Asia, Alice Wells recently stated at a congressional hearing that Washington had 'serious concerns' over the USD 5 billion deal signed with Russia  in October 2018 to procure the S-400 Air Defence Systems. Will India be forced to choose between Russia and the US?

No country can be forced to make a strategic choice. India’s national interest will be jeopardised if it makes a jump into the US strategic plans of isolating Russia and containing China. The US does not have equal relations with countries. They have primarily different levels of client states. India will have to resist US pressure. India can only do this if they are determined to continue with strategic autonomy. This is possible with counter pressure and retaining multiple choices. The Russians are not pressurising India not to diversify their relations, because they respect india’s sovereign choices. 

According to the Russian constitution, this is President Putin's last term in office and Russia will elect a new President in 2024. Jockeying for power appears to have begun already. Who are the leaders in line to become Putin's successor and what are the implications for the internal politics of Russia? Especially in the light of the country's economic problems and specifically, unpopular pension reforms?

Putin who had high popularity ratings, suddenly sees a decline in his popularity. He is concerned about his legacy. Yes, it is clear that he led the revival of the Russian state and stabilised it politically and economically. He has challenged the liberal democracies through the concept of ‘sovereign democracy’. The pension reforms have been unpopular but he has tweaked them, especially after Russian women and others resisted and criticised these. Russia has big problems of stagnation, multiplied because of sanctions. China is making big inroads by dumping cheap goods and connecting roads to Europe through Russia. But at the same time Russian manufacturing has improved. Education and health is better. 

As far as successor goes Putin will try and put his own man in the Kremlin. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been working hard in difficult conditions. What and who emerges, time will tell. This is always a problem with centralised political systems.

A key element in India-Russia ties is the relationship between Russia and the US. Do you expect conditions to improve? or deteriorate further?

President Trump has tried to contest the structural animosity of the US State and Military Industrial economy against the US. His plan was that China is the main competitor of the US and the US can no longer afford two major antagonist powers. He therefore has been trying to refigure US relations with Russia. But the allegations of his personal close relations with the Putin regime, American outrage at the alleged intervention in elections (as if the USA has never intervened in any other countries elections) etc have made a firewall  for Trump. So US-Russia relations have worsened with sanctions. India will have walk a tightrope to understand and maintain their relations with the US and their strategic partnership with Russia.