India's economy to expand at 4.8% in Q3: Moody's

Says Incumbent RBI Governor is more competent

Moody’s Analytics, a research arm of Moody’s group, on Monday pegged India’s gross domestic product growth at 4.8 per cent in the third quarter of the current financial year, dashing hopes of recovery since Q2 had also seen the economy expanding by the same rate.

Also, it would be a fifth consecutive quarter of sub-5% growth, if Moody's projections come  true.

Already, International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India's economy to expand by 4.6% in 2013-14. India's economy grew 4.6% in the first half as well. This means that IMF does not see recovery in the second half. 
 

 

On the other hand, the Central Statistics Office has estimated India's economic growth at 4.9% in 2013-14. This means it expected recovery in the second half of the year. 

 

This point was mentioned by Finance Minister P Chidambaram in his budget speech as well. "Growth in Q2 of 2013-14 has been placed at 4.8 percent and growth for the whole year has been estimated at 4.9 percent. This means that growth in Q3 and Q4 of 2013-14 will be at least 5.2 percent," Chidambaram had said in his budget speech last week..

 

Moody's Analytics said most sectors have under-performed as elevated inflation and financial instability have battered confidence and demand. 

 

On the positive side, it said the improving global economy will support exports. 

 

 

It also had words of praise for RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, calling him more competent.   

 

"On the home front, fewer downside risks, a more competent central bank governor, and the prospect of better government after the May election have boosted business and investor confidence," it added.

 

Data for the third quarter GDP are slated to come on February 28. End