Kharif grain output set to fall 9.8% on poor initial rain
Kharif production pegged at 117.8 mn tonne in 2012-13 season, which started in June, as against 129.94 mn tonne a year ago
The country’s kharif food grain production is expected to fall by 9.8 per cent in the 2012-13 season despite a monsoon revival in August and September. That would dim hopes of a significant drop in food inflation.
The kharif production is pegged at 117.8 million tonnes in the 2012-13 season, which started in June, as against 129.94 million tonnes a year ago. Barring tur and soybean, the production of every kharif crop would fall, according to the first advance estimates for 2012-13 kharif production released today. The reason cited is uneven rainfall.
However, officials are hopeful the loss in kharif production would be offset by an improvement in rabi crops due to the heavy rains in August and September. According to the estimates, rice production is projected to fall by 6.48 per cent to 85.59 million tonnes, while the output of coarse cereals is estimated to fall by 18.28 per cent to 26.33 million tonnes.
The production of pulses during the kharif season is estimated to drop by 14.61 per cent to 5.26 million tonnes, while the production of oilseeds is estimated to fall by 9.62 per cent to 18.78 million tonnes.
| ALL-ROUND SHORTAGE | |||||
| Year | Agriculture GDP* | Total GDP* | Kharif grain production** | % chg over the previous year | Monsoon shortfall |
| ‘02-03 | -3.2 | 4 | 87.22 | -22.17 | -19.2 |
| ‘04-05 | 0.7 | 7.5 | 103.31 | -11.70 | -13.8 |
| ‘09-10 | 1 | 8.4 | 103.95 | -12.01 | -21.8 |
| ‘12-13 | NA | NA | 117.18 | -9.8 | -5*** |
| Monsoon deficiency is the percentage of rains below normal *In percentage **In million tonnes ***Till September 23, 2012 Sources: Department of Agriculture, India Meteorological Department and Ministry of Food and Consumer Affairs | |||||
“Food inflation would remain high, in the 9-10 per cent range, in the next few months as the possibility of the kharif harvest cooling down prices of some commodities is not there,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE rating agency. India’s wholesale price-based food inflation in August was 9.14 per cent, a fall from 10.06 per cent in July.
“There were uncertainties about the monsoon as rains were delayed. As a result, our estimates may be lower than last year but they are better than expected,” Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar told reporters after releasing the data. He hoped the shortfall would be covered during the rabi season.
The data showed cotton production was projected to fall by 5.11 per cent to 33.40 million bales (1 bale=170 kg) and sugarcane output to drop by 6.2 per cent to 335.33 million tonnes. Jute production is estimated to fall by 8.13 per cent to around 10.62 million bales (1 bale=180 kg).
Experts said the biggest cause of concern would be the drop in the output of pulses and oilseeds to some extent as the dependence on imports would increase.
The south-west monsoon, which provides almost 70 per cent of the total moisture required for crops, has had a rather uneven run in 2012.
From a shortfall of almost 20 per cent during the first two months of the June-September season, the rainfall at present is just five per cent below normal.