Monsoon to be normal this year

Rains between 95% and 105% of the LPA is considered normal

In a breather to policymakers looking for an economic recovery, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) today projected the monsoon to be normal this year.

The dreaded El Niño weather phenomenon is also expected to be neutral, which means it will not have any adverse impact on the rains this year, the Met office said.

In the four-month southwest monsoon this year, rains would be 98 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), IMD predicted.

Rains between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal. IMD’s prediction has a model error range of plus-minus five per cent.

IMD Director General L S Rathore said by and large, rains in interior parts of peninsular India, which included drought-hit areas in Maharashtra and Gujarat, would be normal. Last week, South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (Sascof), a body of main weather forecasters from the South Asian region, including India had said some southern-most parts, including Kerala and extreme south Tamil Nadu, could receive less than normal rains.

IMD would announce its next forecast in June. It would announce the date of the onset of monsoon by mid-May.

“There is very good news for farmers and everybody else —rains this year are expected to be normal. As part of a political party contesting elections next year, I should be particularly happy,” Minister of Science & Technology and Earth Sciences, Jaipal Reddy, told reporters here.

Of the five models studied to arrive at the forecast, three were positive towards the monsoon in India, Reddy said, adding this year, there were 46 per cent chances of the monsoon being normal and 27 per cent chances it would be below-normal.

A normal monsoon augurs well for the agricultural sector, as this segment employs the majority of the country’s population. Agriculture is also crucial, as it accounts for demand for goods produced by industry and the services sector. However, through the years, the importance of agriculture in the overall economy has declined substantially. An oft-cited period in this regard is 2009, which saw the most severe drought in 30 years; despite that, the economy grew 8.6 per cent in 2009-10. The agricultural and allied sectors grew 0.8 per cent that year.

Last year, though IMD had predicted a normal monsoon, rains turned out to be below-normal, though they saw a late revival. In 2012-13, agriculture and allied activities are estimated to have grown 1.8 per cent, while the overall economy is estimated to have grown at a 10-year low of five per cent. The government has projected the economy to grow about six per cent this financial year.