October WPI inflation falls to 5-year low of 1.77%

But RBI might still disappoint industry, say economists

Wholesale price index-based inflation plunged to a five-year low of 1.77 per cent in October from 2.38 per cent in the previous month. There was a decline in the rate of price rise across segments, barring a few exceptions, official  data showed on Friday. Notably, October was a festival month and a fall in inflation suggests low demand in the economy. Softening global commodity prices and monsoon revival are also understood to have played a part.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley hoped falling crude oil prices would further ease price pressures, even as he cautioned against being over-optimistic on this front.

With Consumer Price Index-based (CPI) inflation also having plummeted to a historic low of 5.52 per cent, industry persisted with its demand for a policy rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India next month, to spur economic growth. The central bank is, however, expected to wait for some more time to agree.

The sharp fall in inflation could be gauged from the fact that the rate of price rise had stood at 7.24 per cent in October 2013. Inflation before this was lower only in September 2009 at 1.4 per cent. An inflation figure on the higher side a year ago also made the rate of price rise appear low in October this year.

There were a few price pressure points even in October. Potato prices remained elevated as they rose 82.11 per cent in October year-on-year, albeit lower than 90.23 per cent in the previous month. Fruits were expensive as they turned costlier by 19.35 per cent in October year-on-year, though lower than 20.95 per cent in September.

Milk prices were also up 11.39 per cent in October against the corresponding month last year. However, the increase was sharper at 11.35 per cent in September.

Elsewhere, prices remained relatively low. Prices declined in wheat, onions, eggs, meat and fish, minerals, liquefied petroleum gas, petrol and edible oils.

The decline in inflation was seen across all the broad segments — food and other primary articles, fuel and related items and manufactured products.

Food inflation moved  down to 2.70 per cent in October from 3.52 per cent in the previous month, while non-food inflation in primary articles (those in raw  form) saw prices falling by 1.41 per cent against 0.52 per cent inflation.

Jaitley said, “We believe that softening of prices is in our interest... With crude prices down, this trend of lower food prices will continue,” he told reporters here.

The minister, however, cautioned it has to be seen how the oil prices augur going forward. “We should not be overtly optimistic at this time,” Jaitley said.



Highlights:

* Manufactured products inflation at 2.43% Vs 2.84% m-o-m

* Primary articles inflation at 1.43% Vs 2.18% m-o-m

* Fuel & power group inflation at 0.43% Vs 1.33% m-o-m

* Food articles inflation at 2.7% Vs 3.52% m-o-m

BJP lauds Modi govt policies

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Friday credited policies pursued by the Narendra Modi-led government to have brought inflation to its lowest level in five years. BJP national secretary Shrikant Sharma said not only has inflation been reined in, industrial growth has also improved and there has been significant successes on international trade issues.