OECD warns of 'abrupt slowdowns'; India's GDP to slip to 4.3%

With emerging economies facing the possibility of "abrupt slowdowns", India's Gross Domestic Product growth rate could slip to as low as 4.3 per cent in 2009, said the OECD.

"In the large emerging economies, activities are slowing as access to international credit dries up, commodity prices fall and export demand weakens", said the Interim Economic Outlook released today by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a club of developed countries.

Pointing out that the economic growth in India will ease to 4.3 per cent this year, the Outlook said that China is likely to grow by 6.3 per cent. However, the economies in Brazil and Russia are expected to decline by 0.3 and 5.6 per cent, respectively.

Noting that the current recession is deepest and most widespread in the last 50 years, it said international trade could fall by 13 per cent and world economy by 2.7 per cent during 2009. "The big emerging economies will also suffer abrupt slowdowns in growth."

India recorded a growth rate of 9 per cent in fiscal 2007-08, which, as per the Central Statistical Organisation's advance estimate of national income, is likely to moderate to 7.1 per cent during 2008-09.

The Asian Development Bank, in its latest report, has projected a growth rate of 5 per cent for 2009-10 for India.

Forecasting bleak recovery prospects, OECD's Interim Outlook said, "the risks of even a gloomier scenario outweigh the possibility of a quick recovery (of the world economy)."

Weakening of the real economy, it added, will further undermine the health of financial institutions and prolong the slump in economic activities.

Pointing out that effectiveness of stimulus measures depends upon timing, the OECD outlook recommended, "countries that have scope for further action should consider boosting the stimulus in 2010."

It further suggested that once the economic recovery takes place, the countries should scale back the stimulus measures to strengthen public finances over the long term.