Overall rains in excess, but unsteady distribution may play spoilsport

On a cumulative basis, rains at the all-India level recorded a surplus for the third consecutive week as of August 28, at 2% above the normal or long period average.

The quantum of rain so far has been good at the overall level. Indeed, judging by just the quantum of rain, this could well be the best rainfall season in six years.

But this year is also a classic case of how a distortion in the distribution of rains - both temporal and spatial - can play spoilsport.

The quick catch-up in southwest monsoon this year has meant two opposite things - first, excess rain in August in a few sub-regions, which has adversely affected the kharif crop, and second it has improved chances of healthy rabi production with the recharge of groundwater and higher reservoir levels.

Source: Indian Meteorological Department, Ministry of Agriculture, CRISIL

The welcome recovery in July and August notwithstanding, rainfall has not been uniformly spread across regions and time. While the rains were delayed in some parts, other parts had excess rains. Ascertaining the extent of crop damage thus becomes challenging. 

Latest data shows rains have been the most abundant in central India, at 13% above normal, followed by the southern region at 6% above normal. In the northwest, rains were in the normal zone, at 5% below normal, while in the east they have been weak at 17% below normal. 

At the state level, though the overall situation looks better than previous years since the unirrigated area in general has received rains this year. But sub-regional patterns draw attention. West Uttar Pradesh is seeing a rainfall deficiency of 26%, while Marathwada in Maharashtra is looking at a deficiency at 29%.