Plan outlay for 2013-14 to go up a mere 5%

Budget may keep the Plan expenditure at Rs 5.47 lakh crore for 2013-14 against Rs 5.21 lakh crore for this financial year

The Budget is likely to raise the Plan outlay for 2013-14 by a modest five per cent compared with the Budget estimates for the current financial year, reflecting strained resources at the Centre.

The Budget may keep the plan expenditure at Rs 5.47 lakh crore for the next financial year against Rs 5.21 lakh crore pegged for 2012-13, officials said, adding that a final decision on the matter would be taken in a few days after the Planning Commission’s discussions with the finance ministry.

“All these are in a discussion stage and a final picture will emerge in the next few weeks,” said a senior official, who did not want to be named.

A MODEST RAISE

• Plan expenditure may see modest 5 per cent increase in 2013-14 compared to Budget estimate of 2012-13
   
• However, in 2012-13, Plan expenditure itself may go down by 20 pc in revised estimate compared to Budget estimate
   
• This would make the increase in 2013-14 to be 24 per cent
   
• The whole exercise would make it difficult for the government to meet projections for plan expenditure at Rs 35.69 lakh crore in the 12th five-year Plan.

Plan expenditure for 2012-13 was almost 22 per cent more than the previous year. The year 2012-13 is the first year of the 12th Five-Year plan. Low increase in the plan expenditure in the very second year of the Plan could jeorpardise projections of a 124.53 per cent increase in Plan expenditure during the five-year period.

It should be noted here that revised estimates of 2012-13 may see a cut in plan expenditure by 20 per cent, which would bring the final figure down to Rs 4.17 lakh crore.

So, compared to revised estimates, plan expenditure in 2013-14 may witness almost 24 per cent jump.

The 11th Plan period (2006-12) saw the Plan expenditure at Rs 15.89 lakh crore. In the 12th Plan, it is projected to increase to Rs 35.69 lakh crore, a growth of almost 125 per cent.

The first two years of the current five year plan--2012-13 and 2013-14-- may see total of Rs 9.64 lakh crore of expenditure. In the next three years, the government will have to allocate Rs 26.05 lakh crore to meet the projections.

This is a huge sum, considering a slow pace of expenditure increase in the first two years of the plan.