RBI projects further deterioration in govt finances

With the government coming out with financial incentives for the industry, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said central finances will further deteriorate during the second-half of the year on account of the impact of financial turmoil on the Indian economy.

"While expenditure is slated to increase in the coming months, growth of tax revenue is likely to decelerate with the expected moderation in real economic activities following the global financial meltdown," RBI said in its monthly bulletin.

"Finances in the first-half indicate deterioration in all key deficit indicators, both in the absolute term as well as per centage of GDP," it said, adding the "pressure" on deficit indicators would continue during the remaining part of 2008-09.

The government has come out with a fiscal stimulus package of over Rs 30,000 crore which will have an adverse bearing on central finances. This will be an addition to over Rs 1 lakh crore the government has sought during the first batch of supplementary demands for grants raising the government expenditures.

With the industrial production as well as exports recording a negative growth of 0.4 per cent and 12.1 per cent respectively in October, the government may come out with the second stimulus package increasing further pressure on finances.

Referring to the performance of the first half, the RBI report said: "As per cent of the Budget estimates, both revenue deficits and fiscal deficits were higher mainly due to rise in revenue expenditure, both non-plan and plan."

RBI has already indicated that it would review the economic growth estimate at its quarterly monetary policy to be announced on January 27.