Recovery tracker: Power generation up to 3-week high, mobility spikes

The weekly indicators of economic activity showed signs of improvement last week with a rise in power generation and movement of people.

Power generation recovered to a three-week high and above 2019 level on a year-on-year basis. Indian Railways also handled more cargo last week compared to the same week in 2020. Other indicators such as mobility, road traffic, and nitrogen dioxides emissions rose last week.

The power generation recovered sharply week on week basis as a lull in monsoon rains raised temperatures across the country. Power demand also got a boost from the extension of shopping hours in Maharashtra, the country’s top power-consuming state. India generated 4,168 million units of electricity on a seven-day rolling average basis for the week ended Sunday, up 7 per cent from the previous week. The latest week’s numbers are 15 per cent higher than the corresponding week in 2019 and nearly 10 per cent higher than the generation in the corresponding week in 2020. There was a dip in power demand during the same period in 2019 (chart 1).

Personal mobility also improved last week as more people stepped out for retail, recreation, and essential shopping like grocery and pharmacy. The usage of public transport also increased and workplace visits also showed gains on a week-on-week basis. Overall visits, however, remain below 2019 levels. Almost 85 per cent of workplace visits are back, while usage of transit stations is at 91 per cent of 2019 levels. Both these numbers are the highest in nearly four months. This is based on the mobility data from search engine Google. The data is released with a lag. The latest is as of July 28 (chart 2).

Traffic congestion data showed a mixed picture. While the congestion increased to its highest level since the last week of February, it was down in New Delhi on a week-on-week basis. New Delhi traffic is now 80 per cent back to normal while Mumbai traffic is 73 per cent back. The traffic congestion data is based on statistics from global location technology firm TomTom International and latest data is for the week ended August 8 (chart 3). 

The railway freight traffic showed double-digit gains over the corresponding week in 2020. The freight loading (in terms of tonnage) was up 15.4 per cent on a year-on-year basis during the week ended Sunday, August 2, while freight revenues were up 20.9 per cent YoY. Both the numbers were higher than the week before (chart 4).

Business Standard also tracks emissions of nitrogen dioxides. The emissions had dropped as the country went into lockdown in March and April 2020 and then again in April and May this year.  Delhi emissions last week were 5 per cent lower than 2019 levels based on a seven-day rolling average basis and nearly 50 per cent higher than 2020 levels. The emissions in Mumbai have, however, shot up sharply, 83 per cent higher than in the corresponding week in 2019 (chart 5,6).

Business Standard tracks these weekly indicators to various human and economic activities to get a sense of how the Indian economy is recovering from the Covid-19 shock. Official macroeconomic numbers are often released with a lag of many months. Analysts globally have been tracking similar indicators as different countries went into lockdown to control the pandemic.