Situation not alarming, monsoon to improve: IMD director general

Interview with K J Ramesh

After being fairly normal in the first two months of this season, there was a break in the Southwest Monsoon from early August, triggering fears of aggravating farm distress in some parts of the country. K J Ramesh, director general of India Meteorological Department (IMD) tells Sanjeeb Mukherjee the monsoon is set to revive in the coming 10-12 days in Vidharbha, Marathwada, Karnataka and Telangana. Edited excerpts:

The Southwest Monsoon has been unusually weak in August, with some even predicting the shortfall to be as big as 25% below the normal. Is the situation alarming?

If you see the all-India picture, the overall accumulated monsoon deficit has been five% (till August 19). Though there are pockets of distress, the good news is the Southwest Monsoon has entered into an active phase now and in the next 10-12 days things will improve in a big way especially over those parts which have received less rains.

What changed in August, because your predictions said rains would be 99% of the long-period average (LPA)?

After July 30, the Southwest Monsoon witnessed two weak spells. I won’t call it a break in the classical sense as there were intermittent rains in between. The reason for the break was the monsoon trough moved towards the foothills of the Himalayas. An independent way of judging the impact of the break is to look at week-on-week kharif sowing data. The data clearly shows there has been a progression even during the period when the monsoon was weak over some parts. My only submission here is if the rainfall is so insufficient, why then is week-on-week kharif sowing progressing? The data as of August 18 shows this year’s total kharif acreage is just marginally less than last year's.

Farmers in Maharashtra’s Beed district have filed complaints against the IMD for wrong forecasts. What do you have to say?

Anyone can visit the website of IMD Pune to see what kind of crop advisories we have been issuing for the region from time to time and whether anywhere we have misled the farmers since June. In our advisories, we have clearly said don’t start sowing unless the field has received minimum 75-mm of rainfall. Despite that, why did the farmers start sowing? Also, after that, they got good rains which stopped after a few days — all of which was captured by the weekly agriculture advisories sent by our Pune arm. The advisories are prepared by eminent scientists from Vasantrao Naik Marathwada Krishi Vidyapeeth in Parbhani district of Maharashtra, which is one of the best in the region. Also, most farmers who have complained against the IMD planted rain-fed cotton, which is itself a risky crop.

But, the main complaint is IMD predicted a normal monsoon, while in their region, the rains were not adequate.

We have forecast normal monsoon for the entire country, not for any specific region, because we don’t have the capability to give district-wise seasonal forecast.

What about the allegations that IMD connived with seed and fertiliser companies to mislead farmers?

How can we do that? Do we have a commercial product to sell that we will give wrong or misleading forecasts? We have a seasonal agromet services, which is among the best in the world and we are trying to further improve that.

Now that less than a month and a half remains of the 2017 southwest monsoon season, what advice would you give to farmers, particularly in those regions where rains have been sparse so far?

There are some mandatory rainfall spells between sowing and harvesting. In places where mandatory spells are not happening, then arrangement for supplementary irrigation could be made after waiting for a reasonable time frame, particularly in oilseeds and pulses. If nothing is working, then contingency plans could be adopted to salvage the situation.

When you talk of contingency plans, are you aware of any place where farmers have started adopting such measures?

Contingency plans are not issued by us but by the agriculture ministry and, as far as my knowledge goes, so far no talk or discussion has started on any sort of this plan or action. Sowing is just marginally less than last year's and minimum rainfall (around 75 mm) is available in most parts of the country for good sowing. Plus, as I said, week-on-week sowing data is not showing any alarming situation anywhere.

Has there been any change in the global situation which might cause some problem?

The global situation as far as Indian monsoon is concerned is still favourable and I have no reason to believe that it won’t be the same till the time monsoon season ends in India. Also, there are 40 days more for the monsoon season to end. Let’s hope for the best.

But, there are crops such as soybean, arhar and groundnut where the acreage has been less than last year's, right?

Yes, there are; but has the acreage fallen because of insufficient rains? It could also be because farmers have shifted to sugarcane and cotton in a big way.

But, what will you say about east and west Madhya Pradesh; Vidharbha and Marathwada in Maharashtra; north, south interior and coastal Karnataka; western UP; and Telangana, where the seasonal deficit has been more than 20% till August 19?

In east and west Madhya Pradesh, rains were good till July and then there was a break; in other parts which are seeing more than 20% rainfall deficit, including Vidharbha and Marathwada and also Karnataka, they should see good rains in the next 10-12 days. In fact, as we speak, it has started raining in Vidharbha and Marathwada for the last 24 hours. I am confident things would improve. In MP also, rains are going to restart in the next few days.

But, won’t you concede that you failed to anticipate the August break and your prediction for this month was wrong?

In June and July, monsoon was normal and according to our prediction. As far as August is concerned, the month hasn’t passed yet and we are seeing a reversal of the situation in the last 24 hours. Whether we went wrong with the monthly prediction, I will judge at the end of the season. What forecast we gave for August was based on best possible inputs at that point of time. I’m not defending the forecast, but what I’m saying is my benchmark is September 30 and that has not come yet. All my predictions, forecasts etc. are meant to improve agriculture planning, which to me hasn’t been impacted in any form. What we are seeing are seasonal lulls which happen in any normal monsoon year. At the start of this season, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat were in deficit, which was wiped off by July-end. For Marathwada and Vidharbha, rainfall will improve as systems are developing. Plus, any given year, monsoon is deficient in 25-30% of the country’s geographical area.

Are you satisfied with the distribution of the rains so far?

The rainfall distribution so far hasn’t been very discouraging, but it is improving. Also, according to our predictions, September rains would be normal this year.