StatsGuru: Economic indicators are positive but confidence is missing

As Table 1 shows, Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation has seen a sharp dip of late, which has increased pressure on the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates, and led to assumptions that the economy is strongly rebounding. Table 1 also shows a declining trend in benchmark international oil price - RBI would have noticed the apparently strong correlation between the recent dip in retail inflation and the decrease in oil price.

As Table 2 shows, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation has eased further.



And, Table 3 suggests that falling food inflation is a major contributor to the easing.



Meanwhile, the Index of Industrial Production, shown in Table 4, might have recovered from a recent hiccup - driven by a freshly resurgent capital-goods sector.



Altogether, the markets seem ecstatic, as shown in Table 5, with the Sensex hitting a new record closing level, above 28,000.



Two sour notes, however, continue to exist. First, the reduction in oil prices does not seem to have impacted the oil bill substantially, as Table 6 shows. Meanwhile, there are indications from Table 6 that even gold imports - strangled by restrictions - might be recovering.



And one contrary, puzzling, indicator is shown in Table 7: If confidence is spreading through the economy, why do the HSBC purchasing managers' indices not reflect that?



Statsguru is a weekly feature. Every Monday, Business Standard will guide you through the numbers you need to know to make sense of the headlines.

Compiled by BS Research Buereau 
Graphics by Anisha Dutta