Statsguru: From sowing to tractor sales, measuring monsoon gains

THE INDIA METEORO­LOGICAL DEPARTMENT has predicted that rainfall will be normal in the remaining part of the southwest monsoon season that runs from June to September. Rains have generally been on a decline in India, and the period, 2001-2020, saw the lowest seasonal precipitation in a century, shows chart 1.

In the 2021 season to date, rains have contrasted between 9.6 per cent excess in June and 6.8 per cent deficit in July (chart 2), resulting in 2 per cent lower than normal till August 4, 2021. A large-scale scarcity of rains has been averted, at least for now, but some areas have seen large deficits, especially the subdivisions in the eastern part of the country.

The rainfall deficit seems to be concentrated in fewer districts.  The share of districts with deficient rainfall in 2021 is the lowest over the last six years, reveals chart 3.

The near-normal rains have assisted farmers in sowing, and the area under major crops is marginally better than the average acreage. But pulses and nutri-cereals, such as jowar, bajra and millets, have seen a fall in the area sown (chart 4). It may pick up if August rainfall lives up to expectation.

All indicators are pointing to a normal year, and the likelihood of natural calamity-led stress in the farm sector seems small. Tractor sales picked up in June as usual due to seasonality (chart 5).

However, inflation may remain elevated. Prices of perishables rise during the monsoon season, and losses due to irregular rainfall adds to the problem. Although prices spike at different points of time every year, late monsoon months are usually associated with higher food inflation. Consumer inflation for food is indeed rising, chart 6 shows.

The Reserve Bank of India, in its latest assessment, has projected protracted inflationary conditions this year.

 

StatsGuru is a weekly feature. Every Monday, Business Standard guides you through the numbers you need to know to make sense of the headlines