Untimely rain may boost paddy output

Sowing acreage has been higher and crop estimates more optimistic in the kharif season, according to the reports

The untimely rainfall over past three weeks has come as a blessing for paddy farmers with output likely to be higher than the FY17 target of 108.50 million tonnes (mt).

The government had set a target of 93-mt output in kharif season and 15.50-mt in rabi. The kharif output is now likely to be 100 mt — 7.5 per cent more than the target.

Sanket Thakur, director, Chhattisgarh Agricon Samiti — a non-government organisation working on agriculture in Central India — said the recent rainfall has compensated for the initial dry season.

“A major part of Madhya Pradesh was hit by flood but still the state is set for a record paddy production. The state is set to produce about 25 per cent more than last year,” said Karamchand Asrani, president, Madhya Pradesh Chawal Udyog Mahasangh.

Late rains also created sufficient moisture in the soil. The untimely rainfall has helped the medium-and long-duration crops. The good output of paddy is likely to keep prices of rice stable, said G K Agrawal, a Raipur-based trader.

The producers, however, are unlikely to benefit. “The minimum support price (MSP) hike is four per cent while the production cost has increased considerably, following hike in labour charge and other items,” said Chandresh Raghuvanshi, a big farmer in Mahasamund region of Chhattisgarh.

Even exports are all set to rise, said traders. Despite the sharp fall in basmati acreage in key growing areas of Punjab and Haryana, the export of rice would see a slight rise as the states are planning record procurement.

Mohinder Pal Jindal, president, All India Rice Exporters’ Association, said there would be a rise of 5-10 per cent in the basmati variety. These states export about 4 mt basmati every year.

In non-basmati variety, Chhattisgarh exports over 1 mt rice to African countries. The state plans to export 10 per cent more this year. However, there are certain problems that rice millers are facing, said Yogesh Agrawal, president, Chhattisgarh Rice Millers Association. According to him, the policy on the out-turn ratio (paddy-to-rice conversion) in milling wasn’t practical. “The out-turn ratio of giving 67 per cent rice in raw variety and 68 per cent in boil after milling was not viable for millers,” Agrawal said, adding the ratio was fixed as per the quality of rice produced in Punjab and Haryana and should not be imposed on other states. If the milling process was stalled or delayed, it would hamper the government’s procurement target of 33 mt rice this year.

CROP WATCH

• Paddy output likely to cross 100 mt, up 7.5% against the fourth advance estimate
   
• The Centre had set a target to procure 33 mt of rice, about 10% more than previous year’s; likely to be achieved
   
• Export likely to increase by 10%
   
• Prices to remain stable