UPA mobilises numbers to take on Opposition

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government on Tuesday decided to dig in and was mobilising the numbers till late at night to fight the Opposition on foreign direct investment (FDI) in retail.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh spoke to the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) leadership in the evening.

The party had two core committee meetings, extensive internal consultations and a conversation between finance minister Pranab Mukherjee and BJP leader L K Advani. Mukherjee offered an adjournment motion in which the government could also vote. Advani said an adjournment motion that committed the government to rolling back FDI in retail was ‘non-negotiable’. After the brief conversation, the Congress sounded the battle cry.

It ignored murmurs within the party that counselled a go-slow approach. After the statement of Sanjay Singh, a Congress MP from Uttar Pradesh, that the government should rethink on FDI in retail, another party MP from the state, Pravin Aaron, on Tuesday wrote a letter to the PM, seeking a review. Party spokesperson Manish Tiwari dismissed those as ‘individual reactions’.

Earlier in the day, other alternatives were also discussed. For the first time, the unmentionable — putting FDI in retail under suspension — was placed on the table.

“There are two views within the party — one, that we should accept an adjournment motion on the Opposition’s terms, face voting, call the Opposition bluff and push on ahead. But the other view is that we should not make it (FDI in retail) a prestige issue, accept the fact that a large section of Parliament has doubts and apprehensions over it and put off a decision till we have addressed these doubts,” a minister said this morning.

However, by evening, the line was different. “The PM has made it clear that it is a well-thought decision and the party supports it,” said Congress spokesperson Manish Tiwari. This was partly due to the realisation that the PM had staked his reputation and prestige on this. Congress President Sonia Gandhi met MPs in the morning to ascertain the mood in the party and reached the conclusion that the PM had to be supported, whatever the party’s reservations.

The Congress is basing its numerical calculation on the simple premise that no party wants an election. Accordingly, party managers in touch with the Trinamool Congress (18 MPs) were told that TMC was welcome to oppose UPA on the floor of the House while being part of UPA — but it should be prepared for the consequences. The Congress has got favourable signals from DMK (18 MPs) which has its own political compulsions: It will lose the last vestiges of political power if it has to quit from the Union Cabinet by voting against UPA.

Top sources in the Left parties told Business Standard that it was politically impossible for them to vote on a motion that had been moved by BJP. They are likely to walk out during the vote. The government was also working on the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party to get them to either abstain or walk out during the vote. This will bring the threshold of those present and voting down, reduce the Opposition numbers and make it easier for the treasury benches to defeat the Opposition motion.

There is a also view that disruption should be allowed to continue on Thursday. Friday is the day for Private Members’ Bills. Parliament will then close down for the weekend, a holiday on Monday and a day off for Moharrum. The debate might finally take place only on December 7. This suits UPA, as it gives it time to work on allies who might be tempted to stray.