Winter intensity may go down, no impact on wheat seen yet

Gradual increase in temperature may not harm wheat and mustard crop, say experts

The intense cold wave conditions prevailing over most parts of northern and central India might come to an end in the next few days and temperatures could again gradually rise from then onwards, a top official of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.

Though it might not signal the end of winter and there could be days when the cold wave would return, its intensity might not be as severe as the previous one. "As of today (Thursday), it looks like the intense cold conditions might not return soon," IMD director general L S Rathore told Business Standard.

This, experts said, might not have an immediate impact on the standing wheat and mustard crop and the gradual increase in temperature might not actually be very bad. The winter so far has been less intense than 2015. In fact, the September-to-December period had been among the warmest in recent times.

A consensus statement by the South Asia Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) in December 2015 also shows that from December 2015 to February 2016 winter season, normal to above normal temperatures are likely to prevail over northern most parts of South Asia, while precipitation is expected to remain below normal.

However, since the first week of January there has been a sudden change in weather and temperatures have started dropping in the foothills of Himalayas, resulting in the fog and chill to return in the plains.

Officials said any tangible impact on the standing wheat and mustard crop in the current season could be judged by end of February and March. In rain-fed areas, any sudden or sharp increase in temperature could lead to withering of crops, while in irrigated areas it would mean more that farmers would have to run their pumps for greater duration.

According to the latest data from the department of agriculture, sowing of wheat took place on around 29.25 million hectares till Thursday, around 1.34 million hectares less than previous year. The shortfall was mainly due to less area covered in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, two of the country's main wheat growing states.

Till Wednesday, wheat had been sown on around 9.49 million hectares in Uttar Pradesh, which is around 368,000 hectares less than previous year, while in Madhya Pradesh, the crop was sown on around 5.18 million hectares, around 660,000 hectares less than last year.

"It is too early to make any firm prediction on the final wheat harvest. The recent cold wave conditions have been beneficial and if the temperature remains cool till the middle of February with gradual increase then there should not be any problem with the standing crop," P K Joshi, director South-Asia of International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), told Business Standard.

He, however, said a steep increase in temperature might impact flowering. Experts said a clear picture on the wheat crop would emerge around end of February and March.

Among other crops, mustard had been sown on around 6.45 million hectares till Wednesday, marginally less than last year. Moreover, the crop condition is good, which has raised hopes that the overall crop in 2015-16 could be the best in three years.

Pulses have been sown on around 13.90 million hectares, down 0.39 million hectares from last year, while coarse cereals have come up on around six million hectares so far, almost 332,000 hectares more than last year.

Data source from the Central Water Commission (CWC) showed that till Thursday, water levels in the 91 reservoirs was less than the corresponding period last year and also lower than the average of past 10 years.