Assam polls: BJP hopes to gain from PM's Riyadh visit, Sufi conference

Assam concludes voting for crucial second phase where Muslims are a determining factor

The polling for the remaining 61 seats of Assam, in nearly half of which Muslims are a determining factor, concluded today with a whopping 82% turnout until 6 pm.

Chastened after its defeat in the Bihar polls in November 2015, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was upbeat about scoring an unprecedented victory in the northeastern state but did so without any obtrusive chest thumping. The Congress seemed to betray its frustration when Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi held a press conference, which the Election Commission termed a violation of the model code of conduct.

The first phase of Assam elections for 65 seats was held on April 4 and the second phase for the remaining 61 seats today. The first phase went marginally in the BJP’s favour, or so its strategists believe. The second phase, comprising middle and lower Assam, was to make or mar the Congress’ chances given that Muslims are a majority in at least 28 of the 61 seats.

The second phase could decide whether the elections throw up a simple majority for a particularly party/alliance or a hung house. The BJP’s strategy has mirrored that of the All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) plank of Assamese pride. Both its key leaders Sarbananda Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma represent its plank of indigenous people versus immigrants. Sonowal having been announced the chief ministerial candidate months in advance had indicated the BJP’s course correction after the Bihar debacle. Neither Prime Minister Narendra Modi nor BJP president Amit Shah were the faces of this election. Their public rallies in Assam were few and far between.

Instead, in a well thought-out strategy, the PM largely restricted himself to make efforts to try blunt any antipathy that the sizeable Muslim votes in the state – 34 per cent, or nearly a third of the state’s population – might feel about the BJP’s Hindutva agenda. The PM’s outreach towards Muslims was as important to convey to moderate Hindus in Assam that the propaganda from BJP’s opponents was not true.

As part of this strategy, the PM hosted the world Sufi conference on March 17. It was attended by Muslim scholars from across the world and some even welcomed Modi with chants of ‘Bharat Mata ki Jai’. The BJP and the government made much of it. 

In early April, with elections to Assam just days away, the PM visited Riyadh. The visit was not just a foreign policy success but helped the party in Assam politics. In Assam, BJP leaders repeatedly pointed out how the PM was in the land of the holiest shrines of Islam – Mecca and Medina. On April 3, the PM was conferred Saudi Arabia’s highest civilian honour - the King Abdulaziz Sash. BJP president Amit Shah’s press statement on the occasion is interesting. “The fact that Saudi Arabia has conferred this award is worth taking note of. Saudi Arabia is a very important nation in the geo-politics of the world and home to the holiest Islamic pilgrim centres. The importance of Saudi Arabia in the world’s cultural milieu is immense,” Shah said, adding that this was Riyadh’s recognition of the PM’s vision of ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas’. 

On April 10, minorities affair minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi offered ‘chadar’ at Ajmer Dargah on behalf of the PM, with photographs of the PM and Naqvi with the ‘chadar’ flooding social media.

In Assam, the best case scenario for the BJP is to have Muslim votes in the seats that went to polls today split between the Congress and Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) or majority of it going to Ajmal. A polarised Muslim vote in favour of Congress will hurt the BJP, but it believes that the PM’s efforts will help the party project itself as moderate and prevent any Muslim consolidation in favour of the Congress.