BJP can be stopped in a straight fight

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has had a landslide victory in the Delhi Assembly elections with a record number of seats and vote share. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress have been reduced to minor players in the national capital. The Congress failed to open its account and the BJP won merely three seats. Here are five takeaways from the Delhi verdict.

BJP vulnerable in straight fights

In five state elections after the Lok Sabha polls of May 2014, the BJP's vote share has ranged from 23 to 33 per cent. The party did well in states where there were multi-cornered contests. In Maharashtra and Haryana, the BJP made handsome gains with vote shares of 27.2 per cent and 33.2 per cent, respectively. Both had four-way contests. Delhi was a straight fight between the AAP and the BJP because of the seemingly terminal decline of the Congress. The BJP lost badly in Delhi despite a vote share of nearly 33 per cent. A likely two-way contest in Bihar, going to polls later this year, could throw up a surprise as well.

"The BJP has managed a vote share that is roughly one-third of the total electorate. That is probably enough in a multi-cornered contest but not in a straight fight," argues Sanjay Kumar, director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).

BJP losing popularity among middle class

According to CSDS surveys, the BJP received overwhelming support from the middle class and upper class people of Delhi in the 2013 Assembly and the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The party won 13 of the 28 Assembly seats dominated by the middle class and three of the 10 seats dominated by the upper class in 2013. The BJP's tally this time is reduced to zero in upper class constituencies and two in middle class ones. "Middle-class youth voted overwhelmingly for the AAP. You would have had an indication of this looking at the young volunteer base of the AAP," says Anand Pradhan of the Indian Institute of Mass Communication.

Surveys have shown the BJP received the majority of middle-class and upper-class votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. "Looking at the vote share of the AAP in this election, there is no denying it would have got votes from all classes. But the gap between the AAP and the BJP would have been big among poor voters. As you move up the income ladder, the gap would have narrowed," observes Kumar.

Small dreams win over big ones

In its 70-point manifesto, the AAP had promised cheap electricity, free water, women's safety and Wi-Fi connectivity. That seemed to have worked over big promises made by the BJP. "Delhi has a big underclass. It consists of people working in factories, contract workers, delivery boys for online retailers, and sales boys and girls in malls. For them, what matters is affordable power, uninterrupted water and dignity of life when confronted by government officials. For them promises of smart cities and bullet trains are meaningless," observes Pradhan.

Negative campaigns hurt

The BJP ran a negative campaign targeting AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal. Kejriwal was called a Maoist sympathiser, a Naxal and a bhagora (someone who runs away from responsibility). It seems to have boomeranged. The BJP has touched a new low in the Delhi Assembly.

Only nine months ago, the party won all Lok Sabha seats and led in 60 of the 70 Assembly segments.

Modi-Shah cannot buck the trend

The party or the coalition that does well in Lok Sabha elections carries the momentum in polls that follow in states. Nine states went to polls after the 2004 Lok Sabha elections and the BJP repeated its performance in six states. In 2009, the correlation was stronger with as many as seven states upholding the trend. Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, Jammu & Kashmir and Delhi have gone to the polls after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP's scorecard has been 3-1, with Jammu and Kashmir throwing up a hung Assembly. The combination of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah has had a success ratio more or less in line with the long-term trend.