Left slide continues despite better show in Kerala

Even in Kerala, where the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is heading for a majority, what is shocking is the erosion in vote share of the CPI (M)

The Left parties have won fewer seats than the Congress in their erstwhile bastion of West Bengal. Even more worrying is the steep decline in vote share of the Left Front that ruled the state for 34 straight years, before losing power to the Trinamool Congress in 2011.

The debacle in West Bengal came as a shock to the Left Parties. To arrest the slide, they did the “unthinkable” by tying up with the Congress. But the alliance seems to have helped the Congress more. The Left parties have been reduced to their lowest ever seat tally in nearly four decades. The CPI (M)’s vote share has fallen from nearly 30 per cent in 2011 to only 19 per cent now. The Left Front as a whole has been reduced to a vote share of only 27 per cent. Even in Kerala, where the Left Democratic Front (LDF) has won with a clear majority, the vote share wasn’t impressive. The CPI(M) was expected to get nearly 26 per cent votes, good 2 per cent less than the last time. The LDF, however, has increased its lead over the rival United Democratic Front (UDF) by nearly four  percentage points.

The rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), hitherto a marginal player in Kerala politics, is widely believed to be at the expense of the Congress-led UDF. The BJP’s vote share has gone up from six per cent to nearly 11 per cent now. The BJP-led front cornered nearly 15 per cent votes. The BJP had tied with a party that had support among Ezhavas, one of the dominant social groups in the state, constituting nearly 23 per cent of the population.

Ezhavas have traditionally been considered as core supporters of the Left. The possible loss of Ezhavas’ votes for the LDF was perhaps compensated by the Left Parties’ better performance in seats dominated by Christians and Muslims. Kerala has nearly 40 Muslim dominated seats and 38 Christian dominated seats. Christians account for 18 per cent and Muslims account for 27 per cent in state’s population.