'Votes for water' to play crucial role in polls ruled by security and jobs

While drinking water grabbed third spot in the list of top-10 voter priorities, water for agriculture was placed sixth

Water could prove to be the dark horse among political issues this election, in which national security, employment and rural distress have dominated the hustings. 

With India facing "the worst water crisis in its history", signs that electors will keep water-related issues on the top of their minds when they vote are emerging. 

Data shows the importance of water issues as a priority for voters has significantly increased in recent years. Reports are also coming from various corners of the country -- from urban Chennai to Kerala's rural Kuttanad region -- about water playing a crucial vote determinator.  

Water-related issues on voters' minds 

Drinking water came in third, after better employment opportunities and better healthcare, in the list of top priorities for voters at the all-India level. Water availability for agriculture was ranked sixth. These findings were part of the Association for Democratic Reforms' (ADR's) All India Survey on Governance Issues and Voting Behaviour 2018, conducted across 534 Lok Sabha constituencies and involving over 270,000 respondents. It was conducted from October 2018 to December 2018, months before the now underway elections.


 

The government's performance on drinking water and availability of water for agriculture was rated "below average", according to the survey. ADR clarifies that the survey does not rate any particular elected representative's performance, but focuses strictly on voters' perception of the govenrment's overall performance on their priorities. 

A comparison between ADR's All India Mid-Term Survey 2017 and All India Survey 2018 revealed that drinking water's significance as a priority for voters rose by 150 per cent in 2018. 

A billion thirsty souls

At one billion, India has the most number of people living with water scarcity during at least one part of the year, says a recent WaterAid report. 


 

A 2018 NITI Aayog report warns that the country is suffering from "the worst water crisis in its history", with millions of lives and livelihoods under threat. Citing data by independent agencies, the report reveals a grim water situation in India: 600 million people face high to extreme water stress at present and 200,000 die every year because of inadequate access to safe water. 

There is a lot of ground to be covered if the situation is to improve. The NITI Aayog report says 75 per cent of the country's households don't have access to drinking water at home, and 84 per cent of rural households do not get piped water. More alarmingly, 70 per cent of India's water is contaminated. 

A section of voters in Kerala's Kuttanad region will reportedly boycott the Lok Sabha polls, unless its demand for clean and potable water is met. Those voting indicate that whoever solves the drinking water scarcity will be their pick. 

The new government will face a huge challenge right at the beginning of its term. The report warns that 21 cities, including New Delhi, Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad, will run out of groundwater by 2020, affecting an estimated 100 million people. Groundwater resources, which constitute 40 per cent of the country's water supply, are being depleted at unsustainable rates.     

Drinking water has become a key poll issue in Chennai, with around 1.5 million residents living along the city's IT corridor reportedly demanding that all candidates spell out a roadmap for providing them with piped drinking water and underground sewage.

The medium-term challenges are also tremendous. The demand for water is expected to be twice the supply by 2030, according to the report. Further, 40 per cent of the population will have no access to drinking water by 2030.


 

Farmers' well-being, nation's food security at stake

About 53 per cent of agriculture in India is rain-fed, according to an agriculture ministry report. The country's rain-dependent farmers, forced to fend for themselves in the face of repeated droughts, end up extracting more and more groundwater. Towards the end of March this year, about 42 per cent of the country's land area was facing drought, according to Drought Early Warning System data. Some 500 million people, or about 40 per cent of India's population, have been severely affected.    

Meanwhile, India's northern and eastern states saw a rapid decline in usable groundwater resources between 2005 and 2013, researchers from IIT-Kharagpur and Canada's Athabasca University have found. Their work showed rapid depletion of usable groundwater storage in Assam, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal. In these areas, the increase in agricultural food production has come at the cost of non-renewable loss in groundwater volume at an alarming rate, the researchers wrote in their study. Agriculture accounts for 80 per cent of all water use in the country, according to the National Commission for Integrated Water Resource Development. 

'Gaon-gaon talab banega, tabhi humara vote milega (We'll vote only after getting ponds in each village)': is a slogan reportedly echoing in Bundelkhand, which straddles the electorally-crucial states of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Water is also the most critical issue in the 2019 polls for 1.9 million voters in Maharashtra's Beed district. In March, farmers in one of the district's villages reportedly conducted a relay hunger strike for over a week demanding water for their crops.

Water demand for irrigation in 2010 stood at 688 billion cubic meters (BCM), showed the Central Statistics Office's "EnviStats-India 2018: Supplement on Environmental Accounts" report. This is projected to rise by as much as 32.27 per cent to 910 BCM in 2025.   

Without effective management of water resources, this growing demand will run up against dwindling supply in the near future. 

The NITI Aayog has developed a Composite Water Management Index to assess and improve the states' performance in water resource management. The Index, published in 2018, used water data collected for FY 15-16 and FY 16-17. According to the 2018 report, 60 per cent of states (14 of the 24 included in the index) achieved Water Index scores below 50 in FY 16-17 and were classified as "low performers". Apart from the North-Eastern and Himalayan states, the other low performers were concentrated across the populous agricultural belts of North and East India. 

Alarmingly, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Haryana, among others, constitute the low performers, which are home to over 600 million people. Further, 20-30 per cent of India's agricultural output comes from these states, the report added. It warned that "given the combination of rapidly declining groundwater levels and limited policy action (as indicated by the low Index score), this is also likely to be a significant food security risk for the country going forward". Meanwhile, 70 per cent of states achieved scores below 50 per cent on managing on-farm water effectively, added the NITI Aayog report. 

 

 

Steady decline in per capita water availability across decades 

The country is moving towards a water-scarcity situation, warns the EnviStats-India 2018 report. India became a water-stressed nation in 2011, when per capita availability of the resource was 1,544 cubic metres (m3), showed the report. By 2021, this is seen dropping to 1,421 m3. With estimates showing a decline right up to 2051 -- when India will be close to water scarcity with a per capita availability of 1,174 m3.


 

According to the Falkenmark Water Stress Indicator, a per capita availability of less than 1,700 m3 is considered a water-stressed condition. If that metric falls below 1,000 m3, you've got a water-scarcity condition.

They say future wars will be fought over water. Perhaps 2019 will be the first such 'battle'. Let's just wait for the psephologists to figure that out after May 23. 

What the BJP and Congress manifestos say

In its 2019 manifesto, the BJP says it will launch a 'Jal Jivan Mission' if brought back to power. Under this mission, it will introduce a special programme, 'Nal se Jal', to provide piped water to every household by 2024. However, as reported earlier, this would entail provision of over 36.5 million piped water connections a year. In its 2014 manifesto, too, the BJP had said it would "facilitate piped water to all households".

The Congress had made a similar promise in 2014. But in 2019, it only says that the allocation to the National Drinking Water Mission, which has "suffered neglect under the BJP government", will be increased. 

Both parties have indicated in their respective manifestos, that they would provide potable drinking water to all households.

While both also talk of introducing a Ministry of water, in order to unify the water management function, the BJP adds that this ministry will move forward on linking rivers from different parts of the country and that the party will initiate work on this programme by "constituting an authority". 

Under Namami Gange, the BJP promises to fully operationalise sewerage infrastructure to deal with 100 per cent of the waste water from the Ganga towns, apart from taking steps to enhance the river flow. The Congress promises to double the budget allocation for cleaning rivers, including the Ganga.

Under Swachh Bharat, the BJP says it will ensure 100 per cent disposal of liquid waste and reuse of waste water. The Congress, on its part, will implement a comprehensive plan for treatment and safe disposal of sewage.

BJP has said it will ensure sustainability of the country's water supply through "special focus" on conservation of rural water bodies and ground water recharge. Meanwhile, the Congress says it will focus on storage in dams and water bodies, ground water replenishment, and creating a large participatory programme of water management involving the "state governments, civil society organisations, farmers, other users, panchayats and gram sabhas".