It's anybody's game: With minority votes, difficulty level for BJP goes up

From 3rd phase, the proportion of Muslim voters in constituencies will be greater

In West Bengal’s ‘Game of Thrones’, Nandigram — the rural hamlet about 130 km from Kolkata — is King’s Landing; whoever wrests it, will rule the state. Or, so it is widely believed.
 

The prestige fight between Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee and her protégé-turned-bête noire Suvendu Adhikari ended on April 1 with a high voter turnout of 88.01 per cent. But Nandigram continued to dominate the political discourse even after, with both sides claiming victory.
 

At a rally in North Bengal, on Friday, Banerjee said she would win in Nandigram. In the same tenor, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said (in Sitalkuchi and Kalchini, Cooch Behar) that Banerjee has lost in Nandigram and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would bag 50 of the 60 seats that went to polls in the first two phases.
 

Sensing defeat, Banerjee is in search of another seat, is also a theory being floated by BJP leaders, but has been summarily dismissed by her.
 

In an eight-phase election, it’s important to keep the game on for the incumbent, Trinamool Congress (TMC), as much as for the challenger, BJP. And the khela (game) with the mind has been at play for a while now.
 

Perhaps, it was set off by the BJP setting a target of winning 200 of the 294 Assembly seats and then claiming with conviction it would achieve it. But at the end of the first phase polls, most MPs and candidates from the TMC were tweeting about a clear lead.
 

There is a huge chunk of undecided voters and claims by either party are aimed at them, Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader Mohammed Salim explains. Of course, he believes that the “myth” of a bipolar fight — between the TMC and the BJP — is also being spread towards this end.
 

Will the Left queer the pitch in Nandigram remains to be seen, but on the ground, the TMC and the BJP are busy trying to estimate the lead margin.
 

According to local TMC leaders, Banerjee is going to win by a margin of 20,000-25,000 votes; the Adhikari camp is eyeing a similar lead on the back of the consolidation of Hindu votes.
 

Nandigram has a 28 per cent Muslim population, which is Banerjee’s stronghold. But to win, she would need more than just that. Adhikari’s focus has been the majority; the task was cut out when he switched to the BJP.
 

So, they wooed the 186,000 voters of Nandigram with fervour.
 

In the past three weeks, people in Nandigram saw Banerjee and Adhikari go temple-hopping; they heard “Chandi path” (by Banerjee) and “Jai Shri Ram” chants (from Adhikari). This intensified further in the last leg with Adhikari cautioning that Begum (Banerjee) will turn West Bengal into a mini-Pakistan if she wins, and Banerjee signing off with a revelation that her gotra is “Shandilya”.
 

To what effect? Those who had once fought on the same side in the agitation against land acquisition stand completely polarised.
 

But polarisation and an anti-TMC campaign focused on alleged corruption have been the major themes for the BJP in the Assembly election, pointed out a former bureaucrat. “Of course, it was peppered with promises of development and jobs,” he added.
 

Banerjee’s ammo is the BJP’s divisive politics, albeit the trump card is the welfare schemes — around 12, including the universal health scheme, Swasthya Sathi.
 

There are six more phases to go and political commentators expect the battle to go into high gear. The tribal-dominated districts of Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram and Paschim Medinipur — that went to polls in the first two phases — had contributed to the BJP’s performance in the Lok Sabha elections.
 

“It will be critical for the BJP from the third phase onwards as the minority vote bank in the constituencies going to vote increases,” says political analyst, Biswanath Chakraborty.
 

In the Lok Sabha elections of 2019, the BJP had got a vote share of 40.64 per cent and bagged 18 seats (the TMC was ahead at 22 seats and a vote share of 43.69 per cent).
 

According to political commentator, Sabyasachi Basu Ray Chaudhury, to win, the BJP would need a 42-45 per cent vote share.

In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had gained at the cost of the Left and the Congress. The CPI(M)’s vote share fell by 16.72 per cent and the Congress’ 4.09 per cent, while the BJP gained 23.62 per cent.
 

“The CPI(M)’s vote share has hit the floor, so it is likely to gain some. If that happens, the BJP may lose some vote share. But there could be a swing from the TMC,” explains Basu Ray Chaudhury.
 

Around 20 days back, the BJP was grappling with internal feud after ticket distribution. But a senior BJP leader said that on direction from Shah, some fast work was done and it has almost settled down. And went on to add, as things stand, it’s anybody’s game now.