Why RLSP's Kushwaha's lot is unlikely to get better deal with RJD than BJP

Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) chief Upendra Kushwaha finds himself in a difficult situation. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is unwilling to give his party more than two Lok Sabha seats to contest in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. He has conveyed that he isn't altogether happy with the formula, but it isn’t that he is likely to get a better deal from Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

In 2014 Lok Sabha, the RJD contested 27 of Bihar’s 40-Lok Sabha seats, winning four. It had an alliance with the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). The Congress contested 12 and NCP’s Tariq Anwar contested the Katihar seat, which he won. Anwar is now in the Congress.

The RJD-Congress alliance remains intact, but has expanded. This has meant that it isn’t only the political parties in BJP-led NDA which would need to sacrifice the seats they contested in Bihar in 2014 now that the Janata Dal (United) is also a constituent of the alliance. In 2014, the JD (U) had contested 38 of 40-seats, but won only two.

Political parties in the RJD-led alliance face a similar predicament as BJP-led NDA's. The RJD and Congress need to accommodate Jitan Ram Manjhi-led Hindustani Awam Morcha and Sharad Yadav-led Loktantrik Janata Dal. Both these leaders aspire to have their parties contest four to five seats, but might have to settle for a couple of seats each.

Then there are the Left parties to accommodate as well. The Communist Party of India (CPI) could get the Begusarai seat to contest as part of this alliance, while the CPI (ML) could also get a seat.

The RJD is also likely to accommodate disgruntled BJP MPs from Darbhanga and Patna Sahib – Kirti Azad and Shatrughan Sinha, respectively. The RJD candidate received a good 33.75 per cent vote to Azad’s 38 per cent in Darbhanga in 2014.

In such a situation, the RJD and Congress, with Anwar in its fold, would need to sacrifice some of the seats they contested in 2014 in Bihar.

RJD chief Lalu Prasad has learnt his lesson from 2009. In 2004, RJD was a key member of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government. The RJD had won a sizeable 24-seats in 2004. It contested 26-seats in Bihar to win 22, and won both seats it contested in Jharkhand. Prasad was a key member of the UPA. He was the Railway Minister in UPA1 and Raghuvansh Prasad Singh was the Rural Development Minister.

But life changed dramatically for Prasad in 2009. The RJD won only 4-seats in Bihar, and with the Congress getting 206-seats on its own, it had little use of Prasad, who wasn’t given any ministerial portfolio. “This in mind, the RJD chief is unlikely to relent on sacrificing significantly from RJD’s 26-27 seats that it contests,” an old associate said.

This is where Prasad would find it difficult to offer RLSP chief Kushwaha more than the two sitting seats that his party won in 2014 – Sitamarhi and Karakat. Kushwaha’s party had won three seats in 2019, but Jahanabad MP Arun Kumar has parted ways, and could contest as an independent as part of the BJP-led NDA alliance. Even in Sitamarhi and Karakat, the RJD had a healthy 30 per cent vote share in 2014.

However, the pressure from RJD-Congress-Manjhi alliance has already meant the BJP having to sacrifice upon its sitting seats in Bihar. This could make politics interesting if BJP were to fall significantly short of the majority mark in 2019.