Households see rise in inflation in near- and medium-term: RBI survey

Meanwhile, consumer confidence continued to improve from the historic low recorded in July 2021, another survey released by the RBI said

Households expect inflation to rise in the near- and medium-term, according to an RBI survey.  

The median inflation perceptions increased by 20 basis points, reaching 10.4 per cent in November 2021, while three months and one year ahead median inflation expectations increased by 150 and 170 basis points, respectively, from the previous survey round, the RBI said.

Meanwhile, consumer confidence continued to improve from the historic low recorded in July 2021 “though the assessment for the current period remained in pessimistic terrain", another survey released by the RBI said.

"The perception for general economic situation, employment scenario and household income displayed signs of recovery. Households were more confident for the year ahead,” as they were more optimistic about their household income and employment scenario.

Households perceived a rise in overall expenditure; sentiments on non-essential expenditure, however, continue to be pessimistic and did not reflect improvement over the coming year, the RBI said.

The RBI's professional forecasters’ survey expected real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 9.6 per cent, from 9.5 per cent earlier. The GDP is expected to grow by 7.6 per cent in 2022-23.  

The survey is not necessarily the view of the RBI, which continues to see GDP growth at 9.5 per cent for the current fiscal.  

The forecasters see consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 5 per cent in the third quarter, and then increase to 5.8 per cent in the fourth quarter, before moderating to 5.2 per cent during the first half of the next fiscal.