NBFCs to see spike in bad loans in 12-18 months: India Ratings

Slippages to be maximum in commercial vehicle portfolio

After banks, it is now turn of non-banking finance companies (NBFC) to see a spike in loan defaults and provisioning for non performing assets. The persistent economic weakness has taken toll on repayment capacity NBFC, according to India Ratings.

The gross NPAs of finance firms may grow to over 3 per cent of loan book in next 12-18 months from 1.9 per cent. The credit costs, provisions in absolute terms made for NPAs, may double over same period.

According to estimates of India Ratings, erstwhile Fitch India Rating, finance companies which it rates had provided (credit cost) about Rs 172 crore for NPAs in FY12. The credit costs may grow to about Rs 345 crore over 12-18 months. Though, the credit costs as proportion of loan book may not double.

The credit costs of particularly the large asset finance and loan companies could rise sharply in view of the persistent economic weakness. The spike in credit costs is likely to be prominent for companies with large unseasoned books, it said.

The continued sluggish industrial growth, reduced infrastructure activity, judicial restrictions on mining activities, lower food grain output and reduced cash flow of borrowers are likely to have a lagged impact on the asset quality of NBFCs.

India Ratings said the deterioration in asset quality will be more pronounced in medium and heavy commercial vehicles, tractors and construction equipment segment.

The higher stress will be felt on medium & heavy commercial vehicles from these being highly correlated with industrial production. Also for tractors, it is due to their higher dependence on agriculture and rural infrastructure. The stress on light commercial vehicles will be moderate due to their higher correlation with consumption activities, it said.

Finance companies rated by India Ratings saw strong asset growth during FY11 and FY12 (39% CAGR) for India Ratings-rated large NBFCs). The resulting competition for market share has led to some dilution in risk mitigation practices (viz. higher loan to value) in some cases.

Stronger borrower cash flows, a relatively lower risk appetite after FY09 (following the financial crisis) and the denominator effect of steep loan growth in FY11 and FY12 led to credit costs declining to a four-year low in FY12 at only 41% of FY09 credit costs. This is, however, set to rise in H2FY13, FY14.