In conversation with Jinsy Mathew, Sunil Jain-Head of Equity Research, Retail, Nirmal Bang lauds FM's measures in containing fiscal deficit and revenue deficit for FY14.
What are your key takeaways from this Interim Budget?
Considering the limitation of Vote on Account, I feel the FM has done a good Job. He was consistent on his target of controlling fiscal deficit and revenue deficit for FY14 and has indicated further reduction in FY15. Auto sector got some relief and may help in revival of sector when uncertainty reduces. Apparently there was no negative surprise for equity market. Market is heading for a big event; any negative surprise might have larger impact than positive. So, the “no negative surprise” its business as usual for equity market.
How do you see the FIIs reading the fiscal deficit for FY2014 reined in at 4.6% of GDP?
I feel FII will take is positive. Higher Fiscal deficit and higher current account deficit are some of the biggest macro concern FII had. Since both are coming under control, I feel this will be taken positive by FII. But will this translate into large scale fund flow in equity market from FII? I feel considering the event ahead and reduction in global liquidity FII will wait before infusing any large money into Indian equity market.
Is there anything in this budget that would encourage you to change your investment strategy in any sector?
No, I will not be changing my strategy for investment post this event. One has to look more near term and more bottom up approach need to be taken. We had seen in 2004 18% negative movement in NIFTY in 2 days post outcome of election result and in 2009 18% positive movement in NIFTY in 2 days post outcome of election result. So I feel there is a big uncertainty and one need to frame its portfolio in such a way that we can get list impacted on account of negative result and get reasonable benefit of positive outcome of election.
What is your take on the financial space, given the announcements reading capital infusion in PSU banks?
The core problem with financial sector is slowdown of economy and not infusion of capital. Any how the infusion proposed at Rs.11200cr is less than last year Rs.14000cr. I feel Financial sector will revive with revival of broader economy.
What are your key takeaways from this Interim Budget?
Considering the limitation of Vote on Account, I feel the FM has done a good Job. He was consistent on his target of controlling fiscal deficit and revenue deficit for FY14 and has indicated further reduction in FY15. Auto sector got some relief and may help in revival of sector when uncertainty reduces. Apparently there was no negative surprise for equity market. Market is heading for a big event; any negative surprise might have larger impact than positive. So, the “no negative surprise” its business as usual for equity market.
How do you see the FIIs reading the fiscal deficit for FY2014 reined in at 4.6% of GDP?
I feel FII will take is positive. Higher Fiscal deficit and higher current account deficit are some of the biggest macro concern FII had. Since both are coming under control, I feel this will be taken positive by FII. But will this translate into large scale fund flow in equity market from FII? I feel considering the event ahead and reduction in global liquidity FII will wait before infusing any large money into Indian equity market.
Is there anything in this budget that would encourage you to change your investment strategy in any sector?
No, I will not be changing my strategy for investment post this event. One has to look more near term and more bottom up approach need to be taken. We had seen in 2004 18% negative movement in NIFTY in 2 days post outcome of election result and in 2009 18% positive movement in NIFTY in 2 days post outcome of election result. So I feel there is a big uncertainty and one need to frame its portfolio in such a way that we can get list impacted on account of negative result and get reasonable benefit of positive outcome of election.
What is your take on the financial space, given the announcements reading capital infusion in PSU banks?
The core problem with financial sector is slowdown of economy and not infusion of capital. Any how the infusion proposed at Rs.11200cr is less than last year Rs.14000cr. I feel Financial sector will revive with revival of broader economy.
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