Crop prices poised for record, signaling further food price pain

From morning coffee to dinnertime roasts, prices for major food staples are on the rise.

The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Subindex, which tracks nine agricultural commodities, is nearing an all-time high. Prices across grains, oilseed and softs markets have rallied as supply shortfalls abound, a signal that food inflation already hitting consumers worldwide is unlikely to let up soon.

This year “will be a very odd year,” Peder Tuborgh, chief executive of Denmark-based dairy Arla Foods, said Thursday in a press conference. “Demand has to cool off. You cannot eat or drink something that is not available, and only the price can make it cool off.”

The company, the world’s fifth-largest dairy, said inputs from energy to packaging rose 10 per cent in January versus last year. And unlike past volatile commodity cycles, farmers are unlikely to ramp up production significantly, Tuborgh said. That echoes supply challenges rippling across crop markets. Stockpiles of arabica-coffee at exchange warehouses dwindled to a 22-year low this week, and a US Department of Agriculture report pared its estimate for world wheat and cotton reserves.

Dryness has also spanned key South America soybean-growing regions, as well as west African nations that produce the bulk of the world’s cocoa. And farmers are facing challenges from rocketing costs for fertilizer, pesticides and diesel.

“Prices are rising on strong demand and dwindling stocks with supply-chain challenges still an issue,” Judy Ganes, president of J. Ganes Consulting, said by message.

The gains across food markets threaten to hit import-reliant regions hardest. A milling association in Cameroon this week halted flour deliveries due to soaring costs for wheat. Soybeans earlier topped $16 bushel in Chicago on Thursday for the first time since May before erasing gains and falling as much as 0.6 per ccnt.  

A key forecast for soybean production in Brazil, the world’s top exporter, was slashed on Thursday by 11 per cent.bl