G20 to warn on spillover from rate tightening in key meeting in Jakarta

Emerging markets must brace for monetary tightening in the United States and Europe while central banks must be clearer in their policy communication to avoid confusion, financial leaders of the world’s 20 biggest economies are likely to warn this week.

G20 finance ministers and central bank governors are to meet on February 17-18 in Jakarta. Global divergences in the post-pandemic recovery, a global corporate tax and financing the fight against climate change will be at the top of their agenda.

“I think the most important discussion will be on inflation developments,” one European G20 official involved in preparations for the meeting said.

Asked what the G20 message could be, he said: "The formula that will be agreed is that central banks in advanced countries are mindful of potential spillovers to emerging markets and developing countries and they will have well calibrated policies and communication about it."

“And at the same time I think emerging markets will say that they're working towards increasing their resilience from financial markets,” the official said.

With inflation in the United States at multi-decade highs and at a record level in the 19 countries sharing the euro, both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have signalled they would be tightening policy through diminishing bond purchases and rate hikes.

But this could trigger an outflow of capital from emerging markets like Brazil, South Africa, or Russia, leading to their currency depreciating, higher interest rates and a more difficult recovery, the International Monetary Fund has warned.