Mean temperatures, sea levels and carbon emissions at record high

Climate alert: Probability of mean temperatures crossing 1.5 degrees in five years has increased to 50 per cent: World Meteorological Organisation report

On Wednesday, the State of the Global Climate report 2021, released by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), highlighted that the global mean temperature last year was 1.1 degrees higher than the 1850-1900 levels. The researchers arrived at this estimate using the methodology of the report by the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC).

Though lower than 2016, when temperatures had hit their highest levels due to El Nino conditions, the five-year average mean temperatures were still at their highest.

An earlier report by WMO had found that the probability of temperatures rising above 1.5 degrees Celsius between 2022 and 2026 had increased to 50 per cent. Between 2017 and 2021, there was only a 10 per cent chance of temperatures rising above 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Analysis by Business Standard shows that temperatures rose 34.8 per cent in the last decade, faster than the 19 per cent growth witnessed between 2003 and 2012. Between 1994 and 2003, there was a 70.6 per cent rise in land-ocean temperatures, according to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) data.

Further analysis indicates that not just mean temperatures, sea levels and carbon dioxide levels, too, were at their highest in 2021. According to NASA’s global climate change initiative data, sea levels have risen 102.3 mm since 1993 — up 50 per cent in the last decade, from 56.5 mm in 2012 to 102 in January 2022.

Carbon dioxide levels, too, were the highest in April 2022, at 420 parts per million. This was a 5 per cent increase compared to a decade-ago period. Between 2004 and 2013, the rise in carbon emissions was slightly lower, at 4.5 per cent.

An earlier IPCC report had pointed out that if the temperatures were to increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius, hot temperature events would increase by 4.1 times in a decade; heavy precipitation events would rise by 1.5 times; and the likelihood of agricultural ecological droughts would double.

Some sub-stations in Delhi have already recorded temperatures of 49 degree Celsius last week.