Merkel gets lift from big win in Bavarian poll

Results point to strong likelihood that Merkel will clinch a third term next Sunday

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Bavarian allies have scored a resounding win in a state vote, provisional results showed, giving her a boost one week ahead of a general election.

However the pro-business Free Democrats, junior partners in Bavaria and under Merkel in Berlin, tallied a disastrous 3%, crashing out of the regional parliament.

The results, from Germany's second-most populous region, point to a strong likelihood that Merkel will clinch a third term next Sunday.

But they also raise the prospect of a nail-biter finish to see whether she can continue her centre-right government or will have to form a "grand coalition" with her traditional rivals, the Social Democrats.

"The triumph of Christian Democrats' Bavarian sister party (CSU) belies the sizable risks for them at the national level," news website Spiegel Online wrote, saying that a grand coalition now looked more likely.

"The good poll results in recent weeks and now the excellent CSU result could lead many CDU voters to think it's all over (and stay home on election day). Of even more concern to the Christian Democrats is the weakness of their coalition partner."

The conservative ruling Christian Social Union captured an absolute majority of seats in the Bavarian parliament with 48.8% of the votes, according to provisional results from 73 of the 90 polling districts.

Its strong victory means it can drop the FDP and govern alone.

"One Bavarian in two voted for us," incumbent state premier Horst Seehofer told cheering supporters.

"That is a huge vote of confidence."

Merkel campaigned hard in the state's world-famous beer tents, pointing out that a big win in Bavaria would lend momentum to her bid for another term at the helm of Europe's top economic power.

She did not make any immediate comment on the results but was expected to give her views today.

National polls give Merkel's conservatives a lead of around 14 points over the main opposition Social Democrats (SPD), who scored just under 20% of the vote in Bavaria, historically a conservative state, according to the early results.

The 19.9% recorded was not far above the SPD's historic low showing of 18.6% in 2008.

However Merkel's chief election rival, Peer Steinbrueck of the SPD, took heart from the Free Democrats' catastrophe.

"This is the 13th state election in a row in which the centre-right love match failed to win," he told public television.

"There is a good chance that this will also happen on the federal level in a week's time.